Home › Football › Thai League 2 › Police Tero v Kasetsart FC

Police Tero v Kasetsart FC

Police Tero

5–3Full time

Kasetsart FC

Thai League 2 · SAT 17 OCT · Boonyachinda Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Police Tero 5–3 Kasetsart FC POLICE TERO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Police Tero win~~53%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.334

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.424

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Police Tero win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Police Tero 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–22
1′KICK-OFF Police Tero v Kasetsart FC
11′Kasetsart FC find the net on 11′. 0–1. 0–1 · 26–25–49
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Police Tero 0–1 Kasetsart FC
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Police Tero win: 53% at kick-off, 26% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Kasetsart FC win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Police Tero win 26%)
12′We said Police Tero at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–25–49
16′We said Police Tero at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–50
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Police Tero win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
27′A goal for Police Tero on 26′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 47–32–21
27′⚽ GOAL · 26' Police Tero 1–1 Kasetsart FC
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Police Tero win: 53% at kick-off, 47% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Police Tero win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Kasetsart FC win 21%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Police Tero win: 53% at kick-off, 43% now
44′We said Police Tero at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–39–20
45′HALF-TIME Police Tero 2–1 Kasetsart FC
46′Police Tero score on 45′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–4
46′We said Police Tero at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–4
46′⚽ GOAL · 45' Police Tero 2–1 Kasetsart FC
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+1' Police Tero win: 53% at kick-off, 80% now
46′SECOND HALF Police Tero 2–1 Kasetsart FC
47′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 80–16–4
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Police Tero win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
66′We said Police Tero at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
77′We said Police Tero at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
81′Police Tero find the net on 81′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Police Tero 3–1 Kasetsart FC
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Police Tero win: 53% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′We said Police Tero at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
82′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
92′A goal for Kasetsart FC on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
92′We said Police Tero at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 3–2 · 98–2–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Police Tero 3–2 Kasetsart FC
93′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 98–2–0
93′Police Tero score on 90′ to make it 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Police Tero 4–2 Kasetsart FC
94′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
95′Police Tero find the net on 90′. 5–2. 5–2 · 100–0–0
95′7 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 5–2 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Police Tero 5–2 Kasetsart FC
96′A goal for Kasetsart FC on 90′ — 5–3. 5–3 · 100–0–0
96′That is 8, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 5–3 · 100–0–0
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Police Tero 5–3 Kasetsart FC
FTFULL TIME Police Tero 5–3 Kasetsart FC
FTPolice Tero 5–3 Kasetsart FC · Police Tero win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Police Tero are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Police Tero 53%, draw 25%, Kasetsart FC 22%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Police Tero v Kasetsart FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Police Tero win53%

Draw25%

Kasetsart FC win22%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueBoonyachinda Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Police Tero

Kasetsart FC

4Days since last match3

Last match: 13 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 14 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Police Tero	6	−2	7
17	Kasetsart FC	6	−6	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · police tero winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:00 · locked at kick-off

53% The market47%

Us53%

~~Market~~47%

We make Police Tero a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Police Tero v Kasetsart FC~~1.65 – 0.96

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 4~~12 v 17

~~The market · Police Tero win~~47% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Police Tero win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Police Tero win	53%	47%	+6
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Kasetsart FC win	22%	25%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	47%	+1
Both teams to score	50%	52%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	70%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	27%	28%	−1
Police Tero or draw	78%	75%	+3
Police Tero clean sheet	39%	–	–
Kasetsart FC clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 8.2 6.7 3.4 1 11.7 11.9 5.5 2 9.9 9.3 4.5 3 5.5 5.1 2.5 4 2.3 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Police Tero down, Kasetsart FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Thai League 2 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Police Tero at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kasetsart FC away: 0.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Police Tero, 0.96 for Kasetsart FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~POL 1–1 KAS · KAS 1–3 POL · KAS 1–1 POL · POL 0–1 KAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 6 Sept

POLICE TERO

WWLLDL1–0 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1

KASETSART FC

LLLDLW0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	6	+4	12
2	Khon Kaen United	6	+4	12
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	6	+4	11
4	Satun	6	+3	10
5	Chainat	6	+1	10
6	Phrae United	6	+1	10
7	Kanchanaburi	6	+2	9
8	Chiangmai United	6	+1	9
9	Muang Loei United	6	+3	8
10	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
11	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
12	Police Tero	6	−2	7
13	Nakhon Pathom	6	−2	7
14	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
15	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	6	−1	6
16	Songkhla	6	−2	5
17	Kasetsart FC	6	−6	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3