Phrae United v Nakhon Ratchasima FC prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Phrae United 0–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC PHRAE UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Phrae United win~~42%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.684

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.770

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Phrae United win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Phrae United was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–25–33
1′KICK-OFF Phrae United v Nakhon Ratchasima FC
45′HALF-TIME Phrae United 0–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
46′SECOND HALF Phrae United 0–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Phrae United win 33%)
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Phrae United win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–43–26
56′We said Phrae United at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 30–44–26
58′We said Phrae United at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–46–25
68′We said Phrae United at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Phrae United win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
75′We said Phrae United at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
81′We said Phrae United at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–76–11
81′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 13–76–11
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Phrae United win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
84′We said Phrae United at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
91′We said Phrae United at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
93′A goal for Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 90′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 0–2–97
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Phrae United 0–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Phrae United win: 42% at kick-off, under 1% now
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Nakhon Ratchasima FC win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 2%)
FTFULL TIME Phrae United 0–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
FTPhrae United 0–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC · Phrae United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Phrae United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Phrae United 42%, draw 25%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 33%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Phrae United v Nakhon Ratchasima FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Phrae United win42%

Draw25%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueHuai Ma Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Phrae United

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Phrae United	6	+1	10
15	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	6	−1	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · phrae united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:52 · locked at kick-off

42% The market42%

Us42%

~~Market~~42%

We make Phrae United a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Phrae United v Nakhon Ratchasima FC~~1.57 – 1.37

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~6 v 15

~~The market · Phrae United win~~42% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Phrae United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Phrae United win	42%	42%	0
Draw	25%	30%	−5
Nakhon Ratchasima FC win	33%	29%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	56%	48%	+8
Both teams to score	58%	53%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	71%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	34%	29%	+5
Phrae United or draw	67%	71%	−4
Phrae United clean sheet	26%	–	–
Nakhon Ratchasima FC clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.2 7.0 5.0 2.4 1 8.0 11.5 7.4 3.5 2 6.5 8.5 5.7 2.7 3 3.5 4.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Phrae United down, Nakhon Ratchasima FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Thai League 2 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Phrae United at home: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Phrae United, 1.37 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAK 5–0 PHR · PHR 1–2 NAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept

PHRAE UNITED

LDLWWW1–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

NAKHON RATCHASIMA FC

DLDLDW2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	6	+4	12
2	Khon Kaen United	6	+4	12
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	6	+4	11
4	Satun	6	+3	10
5	Chainat	6	+1	10
6	Phrae United	6	+1	10
7	Kanchanaburi	6	+2	9
8	Chiangmai United	6	+1	9
9	Muang Loei United	6	+3	8
10	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
11	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
12	Police Tero	6	−2	7
13	Nakhon Pathom	6	−2	7
14	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
15	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	6	−1	6
16	Songkhla	6	−2	5
17	Kasetsart FC	6	−6	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3