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Nong Bua Pitchaya v Mahasarakham United

Nong Bua Pitchaya
3–0Full time
Mahasarakham United

Thai League 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Pitchaya Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Nong Bua Pitchaya 3–0 Mahasarakham United NONG BUA PITCHAYA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Nong Bua Pitchaya win57%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.280
The market’s Brier score0.272

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nong Bua Pitchaya win at 57%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Nong Bua Pitchaya 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Nong Bua Pitchaya v Mahasarakham United
  4. 37′Nong Bua Pitchaya score on 37′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  5. 37′We said Nong Bua Pitchaya at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  6. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Nong Bua Pitchaya 1–0 Mahasarakham United
  7. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
  8. 45′We said Nong Bua Pitchaya at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–0 Mahasarakham United
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–0 Mahasarakham United
  11. 50′Nong Bua Pitchaya find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  12. 50′We said Nong Bua Pitchaya at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 50′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  14. 50′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–0 Mahasarakham United
  15. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+5' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 57% at kick-off, 95% now
  16. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
  17. 81′A goal for Nong Bua Pitchaya on 80′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 81′We said Nong Bua Pitchaya at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Nong Bua Pitchaya 3–0 Mahasarakham United
  20. FTFULL TIME Nong Bua Pitchaya 3–0 Mahasarakham United
  21. FTNong Bua Pitchaya 3–0 Mahasarakham United · Nong Bua Pitchaya win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nong Bua Pitchaya are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nong Bua Pitchaya 57%, draw 21%, Mahasarakham United 22%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Nong Bua Pitchaya v Mahasarakham UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nong Bua Pitchaya win57%
Draw21%
Mahasarakham United win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenuePitchaya Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nong Bua Pitchaya

Mahasarakham United

3Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

Last match: 20 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

4Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Nong Bua Pitchaya7+311
17Mahasarakham United7−64

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nong bua pitchaya winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
57% The market57%
Us57%
Market57%

We make Nong Bua Pitchaya a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Nong Bua Pitchaya v Mahasarakham United2.19 – 1.30
Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 12 SeptW2 D2 L2 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 11 v 44 v 17
The market · Nong Bua Pitchaya win57% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:24
Our probability · Nong Bua Pitchaya win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Nong Bua Pitchaya win57%57%0
Draw21%23%−2
Mahasarakham United win22%20%+2
Over 2.5 goals67%59%+8
Both teams to score64%58%+6
Over 1.5 goals86%80%+6
Over 3.5 goals46%39%+7
Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw78%80%−2
Nong Bua Pitchaya clean sheet28%––
Mahasarakham United clean sheet12%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%
0123450 3.7 3.7 2.7 1 6.4 9.1 5.6 2.5 2 7.3 9.2 5.9 2.6 3 5.3 6.6 4.3 4 2.9 3.7 2.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Nong Bua Pitchaya down, Mahasarakham United across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting3.50
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsMAH 1–3 NON · NON 2–1 MAH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 12 Sept

NONG BUA PITCHAYA

LDWDWL1–2 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 3–4

MAHASARAKHAM UNITED

LDDLLD0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Khon Kaen United7+615
2Chainat7+213
3Uttaradit7+312
4Nong Bua Pitchaya7+311
5Satun7+311
6Kanchanaburi7+210
7Chiangmai United7+110
8Police Tero7010
9Phrae United7010
10Nakhon Pathom7−110
11Muang Loei United7+39
12Chanthaburi7+39
13Nakhon Ratchasima FC709
14Muangthong United7−38
15Esan Pattaya7−68
16Songkhla7−26
17Mahasarakham United7−64
18Kasetsart FC7−84

The competition's standings before kick-off.