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Nong Bua Pitchaya v Mahasarakham United
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Mahasarakham UnitedThai League 2 · SAT 24 OCT · Pitchaya Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Nong Bua Pitchaya win at 57%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Nong Bua Pitchaya 57% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
- 1′KICK-OFF Nong Bua Pitchaya v Mahasarakham United
- 37′Nong Bua Pitchaya score on 37′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
- 37′We said Nong Bua Pitchaya at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
- 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Nong Bua Pitchaya 1–0 Mahasarakham United
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 57% at kick-off, 78% now
- 45′We said Nong Bua Pitchaya at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
- 45′HALF-TIME Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–0 Mahasarakham United
- 46′SECOND HALF Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–0 Mahasarakham United
- 50′Nong Bua Pitchaya find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 50′We said Nong Bua Pitchaya at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 50′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 2–0 · 95–4–1
- 50′⚽ GOAL · 45+5' Nong Bua Pitchaya 2–0 Mahasarakham United
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+5' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 57% at kick-off, 95% now
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Nong Bua Pitchaya win: 57% at kick-off, 97% now
- 81′A goal for Nong Bua Pitchaya on 80′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 81′We said Nong Bua Pitchaya at 57% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 81′⚽ GOAL · 80' Nong Bua Pitchaya 3–0 Mahasarakham United
- FTFULL TIME Nong Bua Pitchaya 3–0 Mahasarakham United
- FTNong Bua Pitchaya 3–0 Mahasarakham United · Nong Bua Pitchaya win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Nong Bua Pitchaya 57%, draw 21%, Mahasarakham United 22%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 64%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Nong Bua Pitchaya win57%
Mahasarakham United win22%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 8
VenuePitchaya Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Nong Bua PitchayaMIN
Mahasarakham UnitedEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Mahasarakham United
Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)
Last match: 20 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Nong Bua Pitchaya a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nong Bua Pitchaya win | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Draw | 21% | 23% | −2 |
| Mahasarakham United win | 22% | 20% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 58% | +6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 80% | +6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 39% | +7 |
| Nong Bua Pitchaya or draw | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Nong Bua Pitchaya clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Mahasarakham United clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 12 Sept
NONG BUA PITCHAYA
MAHASARAKHAM UNITED
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khon Kaen United | 7 | +6 | 15 |
| 2 | Chainat | 7 | +2 | 13 |
| 3 | Uttaradit | 7 | +3 | 12 |
| 4 | Nong Bua Pitchaya | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 5 | Satun | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 | Kanchanaburi | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Chiangmai United | 7 | +1 | 10 |
| 8 | Police Tero | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Phrae United | 7 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Nakhon Pathom | 7 | −1 | 10 |
| 11 | Muang Loei United | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 12 | Chanthaburi | 7 | +3 | 9 |
| 13 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Muangthong United | 7 | −3 | 8 |
| 15 | Esan Pattaya | 7 | −6 | 8 |
| 16 | Songkhla | 7 | −2 | 6 |
| 17 | Mahasarakham United | 7 | −6 | 4 |
| 18 | Kasetsart FC | 7 | −8 | 4 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Khon Kaen United
Chainat
Uttaradit
Satun
Kanchanaburi
Chiangmai United
Police Tero
Phrae United
Nakhon Pathom
Muang Loei United
Chanthaburi
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Muangthong United
Esan Pattaya
Songkhla
Kasetsart FC