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Nakhon Ratchasima FC v Muang Loei United

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

3–2Full time

Muang Loei United

Thai League 2 · TUE 13 OCT · 80th Birthday Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 15:45

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United NAKHON RATCHASIMA FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nakhon Ratchasima FC win~~49%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.393

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.460

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nakhon Ratchasima FC win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 49% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–26
1′KICK-OFF Nakhon Ratchasima FC v Muang Loei United
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1–0 Muang Loei United
9′8′ and it is 1–0: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have scored. 1–0 · 74–16–9
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Nakhon Ratchasima FC win: 49% at kick-off, 74% now
10′We said Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–9
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2–0 Muang Loei United
16′Nakhon Ratchasima FC find the net on 15′. 2–0. 2–0 · 91–7–2
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Nakhon Ratchasima FC win: 49% at kick-off, 91% now
18′We said Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–6–2
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2–1 Muang Loei United
22′A goal for Muang Loei United on 21′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–17–8
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Nakhon Ratchasima FC win: 49% at kick-off, 75% now
24′We said Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–17–8
30′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 75–17–7
45′HALF-TIME Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2–1 Muang Loei United
46′SECOND HALF Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2–1 Muang Loei United
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–1 Muang Loei United
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United
74′⚽ GOAL · 8' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · P. Duadkrathok
74′⚽ GOAL · 15' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · Samuel Gomes
74′⚽ GOAL · 21' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · R. Phankhechon
74′⚽ GOAL · 60' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · A. Mungdee
74′⚽ GOAL · 70' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · Ruan Quadros
75′⚽ GOAL · 8' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · P. Duadkrathok
75′⚽ GOAL · 15' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · Samuel Gomes
75′⚽ GOAL · 21' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · R. Phankhechon
75′⚽ GOAL · 60' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · A. Mungdee
75′⚽ GOAL · 70' Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · Ruan Quadros
FTFULL TIME Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United
FTNakhon Ratchasima FC 3–2 Muang Loei United · Nakhon Ratchasima FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Nakhon Ratchasima FC win49%

Draw25%

Muang Loei United win26%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 13:00

Venue80th Birthday Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Muang Loei United

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Muang Loei United	5	+4	8
16	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	5	−2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nakhon ratchasima fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

49% The market45%

Us49%

~~Market~~45%

We make Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nakhon ratchasima fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nakhon Ratchasima FC win	49%	45%	+4
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Muang Loei United win	26%	28%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	52%	50%	+3
Both teams to score	54%	54%	0
Over 1.5 goals	76%	73%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	29%	+2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw	74%	72%	+2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC clean sheet	33%	–	–
Muang Loei United clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 7.2 6.7 4.1 1 9.8 11.8 6.3 2.4 2 8.3 9.0 5.1 3 4.6 5.0 2.8 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nakhon Ratchasima FC down, Muang Loei United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Thai League 2 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Muang Loei United away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 1.13 for Muang Loei United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Thai League 2 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Thai League 2

NAKHON RATCHASIMA FC

DDLDLD1–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

MUANG LOEI UNITED

LWWDD0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	5	+4	11
2	Chainat	5	+2	10
3	Satun	5	+3	9
4	Chiangmai United	5	+3	9
5	Khon Kaen United	5	+3	9
6	Muang Loei United	5	+4	8
7	Nong Bua Pitchaya	5	+2	8
8	Nakhon Pathom	5	+1	7
9	Phrae United	5	0	7
10	Police Tero	5	−1	7
11	Muangthong United	5	−2	7
12	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
13	Chanthaburi	5	0	5
14	Songkhla	5	−1	5
15	Esan Pattaya	5	−5	5
16	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	5	−2	3
17	Mahasarakham United	5	−4	3
18	Kasetsart FC	5	−8	1