Nakhon Ratchasima FC v Esan Pattaya prediction · Thai League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nakhon Ratchasima FCDrawEsan Pattaya

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Nakhon Ratchasima FC 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nakhon Ratchasima FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 58%, draw 24%, Esan Pattaya 18%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Nakhon Ratchasima FC v Esan PattayaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nakhon Ratchasima FC win58%

Draw24%

Esan Pattaya win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 8

Venue80th Birthday Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Esan Pattaya

8Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
15	Esan Pattaya	7	−6	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nakhon ratchasima fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.9, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nakhon Ratchasima FC v Esan Pattaya~~1.85 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 8~~13 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nakhon Ratchasima FC win	58%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Esan Pattaya win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw	82%	–	–
Nakhon Ratchasima FC clean sheet	41%	–	–
Esan Pattaya clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.2%

0123450 7.4 5.5 2.8 1 11.2 11.0 4.8 2 10.5 9.3 4.3 3 6.5 5.7 2.6 4 3.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nakhon Ratchasima FC down, Esan Pattaya across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,611 Thai League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 2.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Esan Pattaya away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 0.92 for Esan Pattaya. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~NAK 0–0 ESA · ESA 1–1 NAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 11 Sept

NAKHON RATCHASIMA FC

LDLDWW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0

ESAN PATTAYA

LDLDWL0–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	7	+6	15
2	Uttaradit	8	+5	15
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	8	+6	14
4	Satun	8	+5	14
5	Chainat	7	+2	13
6	Phrae United	8	0	11
7	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
8	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
9	Police Tero	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	8	−3	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Chanthaburi	7	+3	9
13	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
14	Muangthong United	7	−3	8
15	Esan Pattaya	7	−6	8
16	Songkhla	8	−2	7
17	Mahasarakham United	8	−9	4
18	Kasetsart FC	8	−10	4