Nakhon Pathom v Nong Bua Pitchaya

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Nakhon Pathom win at 37%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Nakhon Pathom 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–28–35
3. 1′KICK-OFF Nakhon Pathom v Nong Bua Pitchaya
4. 8′A goal for Nakhon Pathom on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 65–20–15
5. 8′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 1–0 · 65–20–15
6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya
7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 65% now
8. 15′Nakhon Pathom score on 14′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 86–9–4
9. 15′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 2–0 · 86–9–4
10. 15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Nakhon Pathom 2–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya
11. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 86% now
12. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
13. 17′Nakhon Pathom find the net on 17′. 3–0. 3–0 · 96–3–1
14. 17′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 3–0 · 96–3–1
15. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Nakhon Pathom 3–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya
16. 22′A goal for Nong Bua Pitchaya on 22′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 88–9–3
17. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
18. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Nakhon Pathom 3–1 Nong Bua Pitchaya
19. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 88% now
20. 30′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 89–8–3
21. 33′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 3–1 · 90–8–3
22. 37′Nong Bua Pitchaya score on 37′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 69–21–10
23. 37′5 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 69–21–10
24. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Nakhon Pathom 3–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya
25. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 69% now
26. 39′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 3–2 · 70–21–9
27. 45′HALF-TIME Nakhon Pathom 3–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya
28. 46′SECOND HALF Nakhon Pathom 3–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya
29. 49′Nong Bua Pitchaya find the net on 49′. 3–3. 3–3 · 29–43–28
30. 49′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 29–43–28
31. 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Nakhon Pathom 3–3 Nong Bua Pitchaya
32. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 29% now
33. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Nakhon Pathom win 29%)
34. 51′Nong Bua Pitchaya level it on 48′ through Caio Rodrigues. 3–3. 3–3 · 28–45–27
35. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
36. 58′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 3–3 · 25–50–25
37. 61′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 3–3 · 24–52–24
38. 70′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 3–3 · 19–62–19
39. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
40. 77′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 3–3 · 14–72–14
41. 83′We said Nakhon Pathom at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 3–3 · 9–83–8
42. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
43. 85′A goal for Nakhon Pathom on 85′ — 4–3. 4–3 · 93–7–0
44. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Nakhon Pathom 4–3 Nong Bua Pitchaya
45. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 93% now
46. 85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Nakhon Pathom win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 7%)
47. 86′7 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 94–6–0
48. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+1' Nakhon Pathom win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
49. FTFULL TIME Nakhon Pathom 4–3 Nong Bua Pitchaya
50. FTNakhon Pathom 4–3 Nong Bua Pitchaya · Nakhon Pathom win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.