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Nakhon Pathom v Muangthong United

Nakhon Pathom

1–0Full time

Muangthong United

Thai League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Nakhon Pathom Municipality Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Muangthong United NAKHON PATHOM WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nakhon Pathom win~~38%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.571

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.716

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nakhon Pathom win at 38%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nakhon Pathom 38% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
1′KICK-OFF Nakhon Pathom v Muangthong United
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Nakhon Pathom win 30%)
45′SECOND HALF Nakhon Pathom 0–0 Muangthong United
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Muangthong United
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Muangthong United
60′P. Viriyachanchai scores for Nakhon Pathom on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–2
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Nakhon Pathom win: 38% at kick-off, 82% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Nakhon Pathom win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
80′We said Nakhon Pathom at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 1–0 · 92–8–0
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Nakhon Pathom win: 38% at kick-off, 92% now
FTFULL TIME Nakhon Pathom 1–0 Muangthong United
FTNakhon Pathom 1–0 Muangthong United · Nakhon Pathom win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Nakhon Pathom win38%

Draw33%

Muangthong United win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Nakhon Pathom Municipality Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nakhon pathom winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

38% The market31%

Us38%

~~Market~~31%

We make Nakhon Pathom a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nakhon pathom win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nakhon Pathom win	38%	31%	+7
Draw	33%	29%	+4
Muangthong United win	29%	40%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	30%	44%	−14
Both teams to score	37%	50%	−13
Over 1.5 goals	57%	68%	−12
Over 3.5 goals	13%	24%	−11
Nakhon Pathom or draw	71%	60%	+11
Nakhon Pathom clean sheet	43%	–	–
Muangthong United clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.1%

0123450 16.1 12.3 5.5 1 14.9 13.5 5.6 2 8.0 6.7 2.9 3 2.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nakhon Pathom down, Muangthong United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,581 Thai League 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.6% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Muangthong United away: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Nakhon Pathom, 0.86 for Muangthong United. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Thai League 2

NAKHON PATHOM

LWDDDD0–3 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

MUANGTHONG UNITED

DWLW0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	4	+4	9
2	Uttaradit	4	+3	8
3	Muang Loei United	4	+4	7
4	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	+2	7
5	Phrae United	5	0	7
6	Chainat	4	0	7
7	Muangthong United	4	−1	7
8	Satun	4	+2	6
9	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
10	Chiangmai United	4	+1	6
11	Police Tero	4	−1	6
12	Songkhla	4	+1	5
13	Chanthaburi	4	0	4
14	Nakhon Pathom	4	0	4
15	Esan Pattaya	4	−5	4
16	Mahasarakham United	4	−3	3
17	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	4	−2	2
18	Kasetsart FC	4	−6	1