Muangthong United v Police Tero prediction · Thai League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Muangthong UnitedDrawPolice Tero

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Muangthong United 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muangthong United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Muangthong United 44%, draw 28%, Police Tero 28%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Muangthong United v Police TeroBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Muangthong United win44%

Draw28%

Police Tero win28%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueThunderdome Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Muangthong United

Police Tero

5Days since last match5

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Police Tero	7	0	10
14	Muangthong United	7	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muangthong united winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Muangthong United a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Muangthong United v Police Tero~~1.38 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 10~~14 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Muangthong United win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Police Tero win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Muangthong United or draw	72%	–	–
Muangthong United clean sheet	36%	–	–
Police Tero clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.8 8.7 4.9 1 11.6 13.1 6.5 2.3 2 8.3 8.5 4.4 3 3.9 4.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Muangthong United down, Police Tero across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,607 Thai League 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.0% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Muangthong United at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Police Tero away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Muangthong United, 1.05 for Police Tero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MUA 3–1 POL · POL 2–1 MUA · MUA 1–0 POL · POL 2–1 MUA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 11 Sept

MUANGTHONG UNITED

WLWLLD2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

POLICE TERO

WLLDLW3–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 5–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	7	+6	15
2	Uttaradit	8	+5	15
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	8	+6	14
4	Satun	8	+5	14
5	Chainat	7	+2	13
6	Phrae United	8	0	11
7	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
8	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
9	Police Tero	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	8	−3	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Chanthaburi	7	+3	9
13	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
14	Muangthong United	7	−3	8
15	Esan Pattaya	7	−6	8
16	Songkhla	8	−2	7
17	Mahasarakham United	8	−9	4
18	Kasetsart FC	8	−10	4