Muangthong United v Phrae United prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 14:44

Muangthong United 0–1 Phrae United MUANGTHONG UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Muangthong United win~~46%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.040

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Muangthong United win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Muangthong United v Phrae United
2′Little has changed for our model: Muangthong United 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
45′Phrae United find the net on 45′. 0–1. 0–1 · 11–25–63
45′We said Muangthong United at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–25–63
45′⚽ GOAL · 46' Muangthong United 0–1 Phrae United
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Muangthong United win: 46% at kick-off, 11% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Phrae United win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Muangthong United win 11%)
45′HALF-TIME Muangthong United 0–1 Phrae United
46′SECOND HALF Muangthong United 0–1 Phrae United
FTFULL TIME Muangthong United 0–1 Phrae United
FTMuangthong United 0–1 Phrae United · Muangthong United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 11:18 · locked at kick-off

Muangthong United win46%

Draw27%

Phrae United win27%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 12:00

VenueRajamangala National Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Muangthong United

Phrae United

3Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Phrae United	5	0	7
11	Muangthong United	5	−2	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muangthong united winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 11:18 · locked at kick-off

46% The market56%

Us46%

~~Market~~56%

We make Muangthong United a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · muangthong united win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Muangthong United win	46%	56%	−10
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Phrae United win	27%	19%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	50%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	50%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	26%	30%	−3
Muangthong United or draw	73%	81%	−8
Muangthong United clean sheet	35%	–	–
Phrae United clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.6 7.8 4.5 1 10.9 12.6 6.5 2.4 2 8.4 8.8 4.8 3 4.2 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Muangthong United down, Phrae United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Thai League 2 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Muangthong United at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 2). Phrae United away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Muangthong United, 1.08 for Phrae United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Thai League 2 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Thai League 2

MUANGTHONG UNITED

DWLWL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1

PHRAE UNITED

LLDLWW0–2 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	5	+4	11
2	Chainat	5	+2	10
3	Satun	5	+3	9
4	Chiangmai United	5	+3	9
5	Khon Kaen United	5	+3	9
6	Muang Loei United	5	+4	8
7	Nong Bua Pitchaya	5	+2	8
8	Nakhon Pathom	5	+1	7
9	Phrae United	5	0	7
10	Police Tero	5	−1	7
11	Muangthong United	5	−2	7
12	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
13	Chanthaburi	5	0	5
14	Songkhla	5	−1	5
15	Esan Pattaya	5	−5	5
16	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	5	−2	3
17	Mahasarakham United	5	−4	3
18	Kasetsart FC	5	−8	1