Muang Loei United v Kanchanaburi prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Muang Loei United 1–1 Kanchanaburi MUANG LOEI UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Muang Loei United win~~45%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.855

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Muang Loei United win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Muang Loei United was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Muang Loei United v Kanchanaburi
45′HALF-TIME Muang Loei United 0–0 Kanchanaburi
46′SECOND HALF Muang Loei United 0–0 Kanchanaburi
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Muang Loei United win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Muang Loei United win 35%)
54′We said Muang Loei United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–43–24
55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 33–43–24
62′We said Muang Loei United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Muang Loei United win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
70′We said Muang Loei United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
75′Kanchanaburi score on 75′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–17–80
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Muang Loei United 0–1 Kanchanaburi
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Muang Loei United win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Kanchanaburi win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
76′We said Muang Loei United at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–1 · 2–16–81
96′Muang Loei United find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 2–97–1
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Muang Loei United 1–1 Kanchanaburi
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Kanchanaburi win 1%)
FTFULL TIME Muang Loei United 1–1 Kanchanaburi
FTMuang Loei United 1–1 Kanchanaburi · Muang Loei United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muang Loei United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Muang Loei United 45%, draw 25%, Kanchanaburi 30%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Muang Loei United v KanchanaburiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Muang Loei United win45%

Draw25%

Kanchanaburi win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueRuamjai Stadium Loei Rajabhat University

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Muang Loei United

Kanchanaburi

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kanchanaburi	6	+2	9
9	Muang Loei United	6	+3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muang loei united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:52 · locked at kick-off

45% The market32%

Us45%

~~Market~~32%

We make Muang Loei United a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Muang Loei United v Kanchanaburi~~1.64 – 1.28

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 9~~9 v 7

~~The market · Muang Loei United win~~32% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Muang Loei United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Muang Loei United win	45%	32%	+13
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Kanchanaburi win	30%	41%	−11
Over 2.5 goals	55%	51%	+4
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	74%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	33%	31%	+2
Muang Loei United or draw	70%	59%	+11
Muang Loei United clean sheet	29%	–	–
Kanchanaburi clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.3 6.6 4.5 1 8.5 11.5 7.0 3.1 2 7.2 8.9 5.6 2.4 3 4.0 4.9 3.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Muang Loei United down, Kanchanaburi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Thai League 2 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Muang Loei United at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 3). Kanchanaburi away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Muang Loei United, 1.28 for Kanchanaburi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 6 Sept

MUANG LOEI UNITED

LWWDDL0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–3

KANCHANABURI

WDDDLW4–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	6	+4	12
2	Khon Kaen United	6	+4	12
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	6	+4	11
4	Satun	6	+3	10
5	Chainat	6	+1	10
6	Phrae United	6	+1	10
7	Kanchanaburi	6	+2	9
8	Chiangmai United	6	+1	9
9	Muang Loei United	6	+3	8
10	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
11	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
12	Police Tero	6	−2	7
13	Nakhon Pathom	6	−2	7
14	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
15	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	6	−1	6
16	Songkhla	6	−2	5
17	Kasetsart FC	6	−6	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3