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Muang Loei United v Esan Pattaya

Muang Loei United
2–2Full time
Esan Pattaya

Thai League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · Ruamjai Stadium Loei Rajabhat University

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38
Muang Loei United 2–2 Esan Pattaya MUANG LOEI UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Muang Loei United win53%
The market said38%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.863
The market’s Brier score0.747

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Muang Loei United win at 53%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Muang Loei United v Esan Pattaya
  3. 3′Little has changed for our model: Muang Loei United 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–26–21
  4. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Muang Loei United win: 53% at kick-off, 42% now
  5. 45′SECOND HALF Muang Loei United 0–0 Esan Pattaya
  6. 49′We said Muang Loei United at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–0 · 41–41–19
  7. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Muang Loei United 0–1 Esan Pattaya
  8. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Muang Loei United 1–1 Esan Pattaya
  9. 62′W. Namwech scores for Muang Loei United on 58′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 31–53–16
  10. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Muang Loei United win: 53% at kick-off, 31% now
  11. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Muang Loei United win 31%)
  12. 69′⚽ GOAL · 70' Muang Loei United 1–1 Esan Pattaya
  13. 71′⚽ GOAL · 72' Muang Loei United 1–2 Esan Pattaya
  14. 80′⚽ GOAL · 50' Muang Loei United 1–2 Esan Pattaya · K. Sodachan
  15. 80′⚽ GOAL · 58' Muang Loei United 1–2 Esan Pattaya · W. Namwech
  16. 80′⚽ GOAL · 72' Muang Loei United 1–2 Esan Pattaya · Tiago Chulapa
  17. 83′72′ and it is 1–2: Tiago Chulapa on the scoresheet for Esan Pattaya. 1–2 · 1–10–89
  18. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Muang Loei United win: 53% at kick-off, 1% now
  19. 83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Esan Pattaya win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
  20. 92′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Esan Pattaya
  21. 96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Muang Loei United 2–2 Esan Pattaya · Tiago Chulapa
  22. 96′⚽ GOAL · 97' Muang Loei United 2–2 Esan Pattaya
  23. FTFULL TIME Muang Loei United 2–2 Esan Pattaya
  24. FTMuang Loei United 2–2 Esan Pattaya · Muang Loei United win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Muang Loei United win53%
Draw26%
Esan Pattaya win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Ruamjai Stadium Loei Rajabhat University

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muang loei united winPublished 10 Oct 13:12
53% The market38%
Us53%
Market38%

We make Muang Loei United a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 15 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:2110 OCT 10:17
Our probability · muang loei united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Muang Loei United win53%38%+15
Draw26%29%−3
Esan Pattaya win21%33%−12
Over 2.5 goals44%46%−2
Both teams to score46%52%−6
Over 1.5 goals70%70%0
Over 3.5 goals23%25%−2
Muang Loei United or draw79%67%+12
Muang Loei United clean sheet42%––
Esan Pattaya clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.2%
0123450 9.6 7.2 3.4 1 13.2 12.2 5.1 2 10.6 9.0 3.9 3 5.6 4.7 2.1 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Muang Loei United down, Esan Pattaya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Thai League 2

MUANG LOEI UNITED

LWWD0–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

ESAN PATTAYA

DWWLDL3–3 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Khon Kaen United4+49
2Uttaradit4+38
3Muang Loei United4+47
4Nong Bua Pitchaya4+27
5Phrae United507
6Chainat407
7Muangthong United4−17
8Satun4+26
9Kanchanaburi5+16
10Chiangmai United4+16
11Police Tero4−16
12Songkhla4+15
13Chanthaburi404
14Nakhon Pathom404
15Esan Pattaya4−54
16Mahasarakham United4−33
17Nakhon Ratchasima FC4−22
18Kasetsart FC4−61

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.