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Mahasarakham United v Uttaradit

Mahasarakham United

2–3Full time

Uttaradit

Thai League 2 · SUN 11 OCT · Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Mahasarakham United 2–3 Uttaradit MAHASARAKHAM UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mahasarakham United win~~44%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.755

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.704

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mahasarakham United win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Mahasarakham United v Uttaradit
3′Little has changed for our model: Mahasarakham United 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Mahasarakham United 0–1 Uttaradit
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Mahasarakham United 0–2 Uttaradit
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Mahasarakham United 0–3 Uttaradit
40′S. Khunnu scores for Uttaradit on 35′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–3–97
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mahasarakham United win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Uttaradit win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Mahasarakham United win 1%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mahasarakham United win: 44% at kick-off, 41% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Mahasarakham United win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Uttaradit win 29%)
41′S. Khunnu scores for Uttaradit on 35′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 1–2–97
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Mahasarakham United win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Uttaradit win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Mahasarakham United win 1%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Mahasarakham United win: 44% at kick-off, 41% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Mahasarakham United win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Uttaradit win 29%)
45′HALF-TIME Mahasarakham United 0–3 Uttaradit
46′SECOND HALF Mahasarakham United 0–3 Uttaradit
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Mahasarakham United win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Uttaradit win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Mahasarakham United win 1%)
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Mahasarakham United 1–3 Uttaradit
57′⚽ GOAL · 25' Mahasarakham United 1–3 Uttaradit · K. Sriwanit
57′⚽ GOAL · 30' Mahasarakham United 1–3 Uttaradit · Brendon
57′⚽ GOAL · 35' Mahasarakham United 1–3 Uttaradit · S. Khunnu
57′⚽ GOAL · 51' Mahasarakham United 1–3 Uttaradit · H. Kang
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Mahasarakham United 2–3 Uttaradit
FTFULL TIME Mahasarakham United 2–3 Uttaradit
FTMahasarakham United 2–3 Uttaradit · Mahasarakham United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Mahasarakham United win44%

Draw26%

Uttaradit win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueMaha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mahasarakham United

Uttaradit

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Uttaradit	4	+3	8
17	Mahasarakham United	4	−3	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mahasarakham united winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

44% The market39%

Us44%

~~Market~~39%

We make Mahasarakham United a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mahasarakham united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mahasarakham United win	44%	39%	+5
Draw	26%	30%	−3
Uttaradit win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	50%	47%	+4
Both teams to score	54%	53%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	75%	71%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	29%	27%	+2
Mahasarakham United or draw	70%	68%	+2
Mahasarakham United clean sheet	31%	–	–
Uttaradit clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.6 7.6 4.8 1 9.6 12.3 7.0 2.9 2 7.6 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 3.9 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mahasarakham United down, Uttaradit across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Thai League 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mahasarakham United at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Uttaradit away: 2.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Mahasarakham United, 1.20 for Uttaradit. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Thai League 2

MAHASARAKHAM UNITED

LDDLDD0–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

UTTARADIT

DWDW0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	4	+4	9
2	Chiangmai United	5	+3	9
3	Muang Loei United	5	+4	8
4	Uttaradit	4	+3	8
5	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	+2	7
6	Nakhon Pathom	5	+1	7
7	Phrae United	5	0	7
8	Chainat	4	0	7
9	Police Tero	5	−1	7
10	Muangthong United	5	−2	7
11	Satun	4	+2	6
12	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
13	Songkhla	4	+1	5
14	Esan Pattaya	5	−5	5
15	Chanthaburi	4	0	4
16	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	5	−2	3
17	Mahasarakham United	4	−3	3
18	Kasetsart FC	5	−8	1