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Mahasarakham United v Muangthong United

Mahasarakham United

0–0Full time

Muangthong United

Thai League 2 · SUN 18 OCT · Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Mahasarakham United 0–0 Muangthong United MAHASARAKHAM UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mahasarakham United win~~45%

~~The market said~~23%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.840

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mahasarakham United win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mahasarakham United 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–28–27
1′KICK-OFF Mahasarakham United v Muangthong United
12′A goal for Mahasarakham United on 12′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–9
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Mahasarakham United 1–0 Muangthong United
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Mahasarakham United win: 45% at kick-off, 73% now
13′We said Mahasarakham United at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–9
14′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Mahasarakham United
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Mahasarakham United win: 45% at kick-off, 43% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Mahasarakham United win 36%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Mahasarakham United win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′HALF-TIME Mahasarakham United 0–0 Muangthong United
46′SECOND HALF Mahasarakham United 0–0 Muangthong United
50′We said Mahasarakham United at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–44–22
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 31–48–21
59′We said Mahasarakham United at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–51–20
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Mahasarakham United win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
67′We said Mahasarakham United at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–59–17
74′We said Mahasarakham United at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–68–13
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Mahasarakham United win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
79′We said Mahasarakham United at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–76–10
84′We said Mahasarakham United at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–86–6
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Mahasarakham United win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
90′We said Mahasarakham United at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–3
FTFULL TIME Mahasarakham United 0–0 Muangthong United
FTMahasarakham United 0–0 Muangthong United · Mahasarakham United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mahasarakham United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mahasarakham United 45%, draw 28%, Muangthong United 27%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Mahasarakham United v Muangthong UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Mahasarakham United win45%

Draw28%

Muangthong United win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 7

VenueMaha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mahasarakham United

Muangthong United

4Days since last match5

Last match: 14 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 13 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mahasarakham united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:00 · locked at kick-off

45% The market23%

Us45%

~~Market~~23%

We make Mahasarakham United a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 23%. We are 22 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mahasarakham United v Muangthong United~~1.41 – 1.03

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~18 v 15

~~The market · Mahasarakham United win~~23% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mahasarakham United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 23% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mahasarakham United win	45%	23%	+22
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Muangthong United win	27%	50%	−23
Over 2.5 goals	44%	50%	−6
Both teams to score	48%	53%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	23%	30%	−7
Mahasarakham United or draw	73%	50%	+23
Mahasarakham United clean sheet	36%	–	–
Muangthong United clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 9.6 8.5 4.6 1 11.9 12.9 6.3 2.2 2 8.7 8.6 4.4 3 4.1 4.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mahasarakham United down, Muangthong United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 Thai League 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Mahasarakham United at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Muangthong United away: 0.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Mahasarakham United, 1.03 for Muangthong United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 4 Sept

MAHASARAKHAM UNITED

DLDDLL1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3

MUANGTHONG UNITED

DWLWLL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	6	+4	12
2	Khon Kaen United	6	+4	12
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	7	+3	11
4	Satun	6	+3	10
5	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
6	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
7	Chainat	6	+1	10
8	Police Tero	7	0	10
9	Phrae United	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	7	−1	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
13	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
14	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
15	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
16	Songkhla	7	−2	6
17	Kasetsart FC	7	−8	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3