Mahasarakham United v Chanthaburi prediction · Thai League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mahasarakham UnitedDrawChanthaburi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Mahasarakham United 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mahasarakham United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mahasarakham United 42%, draw 28%, Chanthaburi 30%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Mahasarakham United v ChanthaburiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Mahasarakham United win42%

Draw28%

Chanthaburi win30%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueMaha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mahasarakham United

Chanthaburi

6Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Chanthaburi	7	+3	9
17	Mahasarakham United	8	−9	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mahasarakham united winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Mahasarakham United a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mahasarakham United v Chanthaburi~~1.35 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 9~~17 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mahasarakham United win

Published at 43%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mahasarakham United win	42%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Chanthaburi win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Mahasarakham United or draw	70%	–	–
Mahasarakham United clean sheet	34%	–	–
Chanthaburi clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.7 8.9 5.2 1 11.1 13.2 6.8 2.5 2 7.9 8.4 4.6 3 3.6 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mahasarakham United down, Chanthaburi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,611 Thai League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mahasarakham United at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chanthaburi away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Mahasarakham United, 1.09 for Chanthaburi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–2 MAH · MAH 2–2 CHA · CHA 1–0 MAH · MAH 1–0 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 13 Sept

MAHASARAKHAM UNITED

DDLLDL1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–3

CHANTHABURI

DWLDWD0–0 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	7	+6	15
2	Uttaradit	8	+5	15
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	8	+6	14
4	Satun	8	+5	14
5	Chainat	7	+2	13
6	Phrae United	8	0	11
7	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
8	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
9	Police Tero	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	8	−3	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Chanthaburi	7	+3	9
13	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
14	Muangthong United	7	−3	8
15	Esan Pattaya	7	−6	8
16	Songkhla	8	−2	7
17	Mahasarakham United	8	−9	4
18	Kasetsart FC	8	−10	4