Khon Kaen United v Chainat prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 15:30

Khon Kaen United 2–1 Chainat KHON KAEN UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Khon Kaen United win~~53%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.334

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.276

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Khon Kaen United win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Khon Kaen United 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–23–23
1′KICK-OFF Khon Kaen United v Chainat
19′Khon Kaen United score on 19′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–16–8
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Khon Kaen United 1–0 Chainat
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Khon Kaen United win: 53% at kick-off, 77% now
21′We said Khon Kaen United at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
45′HALF-TIME Khon Kaen United 1–0 Chainat
46′SECOND HALF Khon Kaen United 1–0 Chainat
53′We said Khon Kaen United at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Khon Kaen United win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
68′Khon Kaen United find the net on 68′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Khon Kaen United 2–0 Chainat
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Khon Kaen United win: 53% at kick-off, 98% now
69′We said Khon Kaen United at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
80′A goal for Chainat on 80′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 90–9–1
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Khon Kaen United 2–1 Chainat
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Khon Kaen United win: 53% at kick-off, 90% now
81′We said Khon Kaen United at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–1 · 91–8–0
81′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 91–8–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Khon Kaen United win: 53% at kick-off, 93% now
FTFULL TIME Khon Kaen United 2–1 Chainat
FTKhon Kaen United 2–1 Chainat · Khon Kaen United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Khon Kaen United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Khon Kaen United 53%, draw 24%, Chainat 23%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Khon Kaen United v ChainatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · locked at kick-off

Khon Kaen United win53%

Draw24%

Chainat win23%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueKhonkaen Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Khon Kaen United

Chainat

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Chainat	5	+2	10
6	Khon Kaen United	5	+3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · khon kaen united winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

53% The market57%

Us53%

~~Market~~57%

We make Khon Kaen United a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Khon Kaen United v Chainat~~1.79 – 1.10

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L2 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~6 v 3

~~The market · Khon Kaen United win~~57% · ours 53%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · khon kaen united win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Khon Kaen United win	53%	57%	−4
Draw	24%	24%	0
Chainat win	23%	19%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%	0
Both teams to score	55%	55%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Khon Kaen United or draw	77%	81%	−4
Khon Kaen United clean sheet	34%	–	–
Chainat clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.3 5.8 3.4 1 9.6 11.2 5.9 2.2 2 8.8 9.5 5.2 3 5.3 5.7 3.1 4 2.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Khon Kaen United down, Chainat across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,596 Thai League 2 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings since 2021/22, in every competition we cover: 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Khon Kaen United at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chainat away: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Khon Kaen United, 1.10 for Chainat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KHO 2–1 CHA · CHA 2–1 KHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept

KHON KAEN UNITED

WWLWL1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1

CHAINAT

WLDWW3–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nong Bua Pitchaya	6	+4	11
2	Uttaradit	5	+4	11
3	Chainat	5	+2	10
4	Phrae United	6	+1	10
5	Satun	5	+3	9
6	Khon Kaen United	5	+3	9
7	Kanchanaburi	6	+2	9
8	Chiangmai United	6	+1	9
9	Muang Loei United	6	+3	8
10	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
11	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
12	Police Tero	6	−2	7
13	Nakhon Pathom	6	−2	7
14	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
15	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	6	−1	6
16	Songkhla	6	−2	5
17	Kasetsart FC	6	−6	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3