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Model 1.1

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Kasetsart FC v Mahasarakham United

Kasetsart FC
3–1Full time
Mahasarakham United

Thai League 2 · WED 14 OCT · Insee Chantarasatit Stadium

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 15:31
Kasetsart FC 3–1 Mahasarakham United KASETSART FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kasetsart FC win38%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.584
The market’s Brier score0.620

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kasetsart FC win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kasetsart FC 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–27–35
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Kasetsart FC v Mahasarakham United
  4. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Kasetsart FC win 32%)
  5. 39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Kasetsart FC 1–0 Mahasarakham United
  6. 40′Kasetsart FC find the net on 39′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–21–8
  7. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Kasetsart FC win: 38% at kick-off, 70% now
  8. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Kasetsart FC win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Draw 21%)
  9. 41′We said Kasetsart FC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–21–8
  10. 42′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 71–21–8
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Kasetsart FC 1–0 Mahasarakham United
  12. 46′SECOND HALF Kasetsart FC 1–0 Mahasarakham United
  13. 46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Kasetsart FC 1–1 Mahasarakham United
  14. 47′A goal for Mahasarakham United on 46′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 30–42–28
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Kasetsart FC win: 38% at kick-off, 30% now
  16. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Kasetsart FC win 30%)
  17. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Kasetsart FC win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
  18. 60′We said Kasetsart FC at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–51–23
  19. 62′We said Kasetsart FC at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
  20. 65′65′ and it is 2–1: Kasetsart FC have scored. 2–1 · 79–18–3
  21. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Kasetsart FC 2–1 Mahasarakham United
  22. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Kasetsart FC win: 38% at kick-off, 79% now
  23. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Kasetsart FC win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
  24. 66′We said Kasetsart FC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 2–1 · 79–18–3
  25. 67′We said Kasetsart FC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  26. 69′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 81–16–3
  27. 75′We said Kasetsart FC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–1
  28. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Kasetsart FC win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
  29. 81′We said Kasetsart FC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  30. 88′Kasetsart FC find the net on 87′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  31. 88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Kasetsart FC 3–1 Mahasarakham United
  32. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Kasetsart FC win: 38% at kick-off, 100% now
  33. 89′We said Kasetsart FC at 38% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 90′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  35. FTFULL TIME Kasetsart FC 3–1 Mahasarakham United
  36. FTKasetsart FC 3–1 Mahasarakham United · Kasetsart FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Kasetsart FC v Mahasarakham UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Kasetsart FC win38%
Draw28%
Mahasarakham United win34%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 13:00

VenueInsee Chantarasatit Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kasetsart FC

Mahasarakham United

4Days since last match3
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
17Mahasarakham United5-43
18Kasetsart FC5-81

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kasetsart fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off
38% The market36%
Us38%
Market36%

We make Kasetsart FC a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Kasetsart FC v Mahasarakham United1.28 – 1.21
Last six in Thai League 2W0 D1 L5 · W0 D4 L2
Table places · points 1 v 318 v 17
The market · Kasetsart FC win36% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 9 OCT 06:2114 OCT 04:52
Our probability · kasetsart fc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Kasetsart FC win38%36%+2
Draw28%29%−1
Mahasarakham United win34%35%−1
Over 2.5 goals45%47%−2
Both teams to score50%53%−2
Over 1.5 goals71%71%0
Over 3.5 goals24%26%−2
Kasetsart FC or draw66%65%+1
Kasetsart FC clean sheet30%––
Mahasarakham United clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 9.2 9.6 6.1 2.5 1 10.2 13.0 7.5 3.1 2 6.8 8.0 4.8 3 3.0 3.5 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Kasetsart FC down, Mahasarakham United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsKAS 0–0 MAH · MAH 2–0 KAS · MAH 1–1 KAS · KAS 0–2 MAH

Form · last six in Thai League 2

KASETSART FC

LLLLDL3–4 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–2

MAHASARAKHAM UNITED

DDLDDL2–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Uttaradit5411
2Chainat5210
3Phrae United6110
4Satun539
5Chiangmai United539
6Khon Kaen United539
7Kanchanaburi629
8Muang Loei United638
9Nong Bua Pitchaya528
10Nakhon Pathom517
11Police Tero6-27
12Muangthong United6-37
13Nakhon Ratchasima FC6-16
14Chanthaburi505
15Songkhla5-15
16Esan Pattaya5-55
17Mahasarakham United5-43
18Kasetsart FC5-81

The competition's standings.