Kanchanaburi v Police Tero prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 15:16

Kanchanaburi 1–0 Police Tero KANCHANABURI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kanchanaburi win~~55%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.309

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.267

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kanchanaburi win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Kanchanaburi was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 55% now. 0–0 · 55–22–22
1′KICK-OFF Kanchanaburi v Police Tero
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Kanchanaburi win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME Kanchanaburi 0–0 Police Tero
46′SECOND HALF Kanchanaburi 0–0 Police Tero
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Kanchanaburi 1–0 Police Tero
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Kanchanaburi 1–0 Police Tero
FTFULL TIME Kanchanaburi 1–0 Police Tero
FTKanchanaburi 1–0 Police Tero · Kanchanaburi win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

Kanchanaburi win55%

Draw23%

Police Tero win22%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 12:30

VenueKanchanaburi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Kanchanaburi

Police Tero

4Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Police Tero	5	−1	7
12	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kanchanaburi winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off

55% The market58%

Us55%

~~Market~~58%

We make Kanchanaburi a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kanchanaburi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kanchanaburi win	55%	58%	−3
Draw	23%	23%	0
Police Tero win	22%	19%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	58%	0
Both teams to score	57%	56%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	37%	−1
Kanchanaburi or draw	78%	81%	−3
Kanchanaburi clean sheet	33%	–	–
Police Tero clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.7 5.2 3.2 1 8.9 10.7 5.7 2.2 2 8.6 9.4 5.3 2.0 3 5.5 5.9 3.3 4 2.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kanchanaburi down, Police Tero across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,589 Thai League 2 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kanchanaburi at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Police Tero away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Kanchanaburi, 1.13 for Police Tero. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAN 2–1 POL · POL 1–2 KAN

Form · last six in Thai League 2

KANCHANABURI

DWDDDL2–2 · 4–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

POLICE TERO

LWWLLD1–3 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	5	+4	11
2	Chainat	5	+2	10
3	Satun	5	+3	9
4	Chiangmai United	5	+3	9
5	Khon Kaen United	5	+3	9
6	Muang Loei United	5	+4	8
7	Nong Bua Pitchaya	5	+2	8
8	Nakhon Pathom	5	+1	7
9	Phrae United	5	0	7
10	Police Tero	5	−1	7
11	Muangthong United	5	−2	7
12	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
13	Chanthaburi	5	0	5
14	Songkhla	5	−1	5
15	Esan Pattaya	5	−5	5
16	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	5	−2	3
17	Mahasarakham United	5	−4	3
18	Kasetsart FC	5	−8	1