Kanchanaburi v Chainat prediction · Thai League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KanchanaburiDrawChainat

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Kanchanaburi 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kanchanaburi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kanchanaburi 54%, draw 24%, Chainat 22%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Kanchanaburi v ChainatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Kanchanaburi win54%

Draw24%

Chainat win22%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKanchanaburi Province Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kanchanaburi

Chainat

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 18 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Chainat	7	+2	13
7	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kanchanaburi winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Kanchanaburi a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kanchanaburi v Chainat~~1.83 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~7 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kanchanaburi win	54%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Chainat win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Kanchanaburi or draw	78%	–	–
Kanchanaburi clean sheet	35%	–	–
Chainat clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 6.5 5.6 3.3 1 9.7 11.2 5.6 2.0 2 9.1 9.4 5.0 3 5.6 5.7 3.0 4 2.6 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kanchanaburi down, Chainat across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,611 Thai League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kanchanaburi at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chainat away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Kanchanaburi, 1.06 for Chainat. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KAN 1–0 CHA · CHA 2–2 KAN · CHA 1–0 KAN · KAN 2–0 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 13 Sept

KANCHANABURI

DDDLWD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

CHAINAT

LDWWLW0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	7	+6	15
2	Uttaradit	8	+5	15
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	8	+6	14
4	Satun	8	+5	14
5	Chainat	7	+2	13
6	Phrae United	8	0	11
7	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
8	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
9	Police Tero	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	8	−3	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Chanthaburi	7	+3	9
13	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
14	Muangthong United	7	−3	8
15	Esan Pattaya	7	−6	8
16	Songkhla	8	−2	7
17	Mahasarakham United	8	−9	4
18	Kasetsart FC	8	−10	4