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Esan Pattaya v Songkhla

Esan Pattaya

3–2Full time

Songkhla

Thai League 2 · WED 14 OCT · Nongprue Municipality Stadium

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 15:01

Esan Pattaya 3–2 Songkhla ESAN PATTAYA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Esan Pattaya win~~45%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.622

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Esan Pattaya win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Esan Pattaya 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
1′KICK-OFF Esan Pattaya v Songkhla
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Esan Pattaya 0–1 Songkhla
23′A goal for Songkhla on 22′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 42–33–26
23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' Songkhla
40′A goal for Esan Pattaya on 40′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Esan Pattaya 1–0 Songkhla
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Esan Pattaya win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
42′We said Esan Pattaya at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
44′T. Benyapad scores for Esan Pattaya on 39′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
45′45′ and it is 2–0: Esan Pattaya have scored. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′We said Esan Pattaya at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Esan Pattaya 2–0 Songkhla
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Esan Pattaya win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
45′HALF-TIME Esan Pattaya 2–0 Songkhla
46′SECOND HALF Esan Pattaya 2–0 Songkhla
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Esan Pattaya 2–1 Songkhla
62′Songkhla find the net on 61′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–16–3
62′We said Esan Pattaya at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 2–1 · 82–16–3
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Esan Pattaya win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
64′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 82–15–2
66′A goal for Esan Pattaya on 65′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Esan Pattaya 3–1 Songkhla
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Esan Pattaya win: 45% at kick-off, 98% now
67′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 98–2–0
80′We said Esan Pattaya at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′90′ and it is 3–2: Songkhla have scored. 3–2 · 97–3–0
90′5 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 97–3–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Esan Pattaya 3–2 Songkhla
FTFULL TIME Esan Pattaya 3–2 Songkhla
FTEsan Pattaya 3–2 Songkhla · Esan Pattaya win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Esan Pattaya v SongkhlaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

Esan Pattaya win45%

Draw28%

Songkhla win27%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 12:00

VenueNongprue Municipality Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Esan Pattaya

Songkhla

4Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Songkhla	5	-1	5
16	Esan Pattaya	5	-5	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · esan pattaya winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 11:32 · locked at kick-off

45% The market36%

Us45%

~~Market~~36%

We make Esan Pattaya a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Esan Pattaya v Songkhla~~1.39 – 1.00

~~Last six in Thai League 2~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 5~~16 v 15

~~The market · Esan Pattaya win~~36% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · esan pattaya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Esan Pattaya win	45%	36%	+10
Draw	28%	29%	−2
Songkhla win	27%	35%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	70%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	27%	−5
Esan Pattaya or draw	73%	65%	+8
Esan Pattaya clean sheet	37%	–	–
Songkhla clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 10.0 8.8 4.6 1 12.3 12.9 6.2 2.1 2 8.8 8.6 4.3 3 4.1 4.0 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Esan Pattaya down, Songkhla across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,592 Thai League 2 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.8% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Esan Pattaya at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Songkhla away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Esan Pattaya, 1.00 for Songkhla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SON 2–1 ESA · ESA 1–0 SON

Form · last six in Thai League 2

ESAN PATTAYA

WWLDLD2–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2

SONGKHLA

LDLWDL1–5 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	5	4	11
2	Chainat	5	2	10
3	Phrae United	6	1	10
4	Satun	5	3	9
5	Chiangmai United	5	3	9
6	Khon Kaen United	5	3	9
7	Kanchanaburi	6	2	9
8	Muang Loei United	6	3	8
9	Nong Bua Pitchaya	5	2	8
10	Nakhon Pathom	5	1	7
11	Police Tero	6	-2	7
12	Muangthong United	6	-3	7
13	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	6	-1	6
14	Chanthaburi	5	0	5
15	Songkhla	5	-1	5
16	Esan Pattaya	5	-5	5
17	Mahasarakham United	5	-4	3
18	Kasetsart FC	5	-8	1