Esan Pattaya v Khon Kaen United prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Esan Pattaya 0–2 Khon Kaen United ESAN PATTAYA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Esan Pattaya win~~40%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.663

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.506

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Esan Pattaya win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Esan Pattaya 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–27–34
1′KICK-OFF Esan Pattaya v Khon Kaen United
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Esan Pattaya win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Esan Pattaya 0–0 Khon Kaen United
46′SECOND HALF Esan Pattaya 0–0 Khon Kaen United
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Esan Pattaya win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–45–26
57′We said Esan Pattaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–47–25
65′We said Esan Pattaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–22
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Esan Pattaya win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
73′We said Esan Pattaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
78′Khon Kaen United score on 78′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–13–85
78′We said Esan Pattaya at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Esan Pattaya 0–1 Khon Kaen United
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Esan Pattaya win: 40% at kick-off, 1% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Khon Kaen United win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Esan Pattaya win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
90′Khon Kaen United find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Esan Pattaya 0–2 Khon Kaen United
FTFULL TIME Esan Pattaya 0–2 Khon Kaen United
FTEsan Pattaya 0–2 Khon Kaen United · Esan Pattaya win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Esan Pattaya are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Esan Pattaya 40%, draw 26%, Khon Kaen United 34%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Esan Pattaya v Khon Kaen UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Esan Pattaya win40%

Draw26%

Khon Kaen United win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueNongprue Municipality Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Esan Pattaya

Khon Kaen United

4Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · Thai League 2

Last match: 15 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Khon Kaen United	6	+4	12
14	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · esan pattaya winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:00 · locked at kick-off

40% The market28%

Us40%

~~Market~~28%

We make Esan Pattaya a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Esan Pattaya v Khon Kaen United~~1.43 – 1.30

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~14 v 2

~~The market · Esan Pattaya win~~28% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Esan Pattaya win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Esan Pattaya win	40%	28%	+12
Draw	26%	30%	−4
Khon Kaen United win	34%	42%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	51%	47%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	29%	27%	+2
Esan Pattaya or draw	66%	58%	+8
Esan Pattaya clean sheet	28%	–	–
Khon Kaen United clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.3 8.1 5.6 2.5 1 8.9 12.4 7.7 3.4 2 6.6 8.4 5.4 2.4 3 3.2 4.1 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Esan Pattaya down, Khon Kaen United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 Thai League 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Esan Pattaya at home: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Khon Kaen United away: 1.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Esan Pattaya, 1.30 for Khon Kaen United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ESA 2–2 KHO · KHO 0–0 ESA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept

ESAN PATTAYA

WLDLDW1–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–2

KHON KAEN UNITED

WWLWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	6	+4	12
2	Khon Kaen United	6	+4	12
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	7	+3	11
4	Satun	6	+3	10
5	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
6	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
7	Chainat	6	+1	10
8	Police Tero	7	0	10
9	Phrae United	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	7	−1	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
13	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
14	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
15	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
16	Songkhla	7	−2	6
17	Kasetsart FC	7	−8	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3