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Chiangmai United v Songkhla

Chiangmai United

1–1Full time

Songkhla

Thai League 2 · SAT 17 OCT · 700th Anniversary Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Chiangmai United 1–1 Songkhla CHIANGMAI UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Chiangmai United win~~52%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.904

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.801

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chiangmai United win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chiangmai United was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–24–24
1′KICK-OFF Chiangmai United v Songkhla
4′Chiangmai United find the net on 4′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–15–10
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Chiangmai United 1–0 Songkhla
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Chiangmai United win: 52% at kick-off, 76% now
5′We published Chiangmai United at 52%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–15–10
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 76–16–7
34′A goal for Chiangmai United on 34′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–2
34′We published Chiangmai United at 52%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–2
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Chiangmai United 2–0 Songkhla
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Chiangmai United win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
36′A red card for Songkhla on 35′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–0 · 93–5–1
36′Wellington Smith scores for Chiangmai United on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–5–1
36′🟥 RED CARD · 35' Songkhla
39′GOAL DISALLOWED · 39' Chiangmai United
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Chiangmai United win: 52% at kick-off, 77% now
41′PENALTY MISSED · 41' Chiangmai United
45′HALF-TIME Chiangmai United 1–1 Songkhla
46′SECOND HALF Chiangmai United 1–1 Songkhla
47′We said Chiangmai United at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 40%. 1–1 · 40–38–22
48′A goal for Songkhla on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–38–22
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Chiangmai United 1–1 Songkhla
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Chiangmai United win: 52% at kick-off, 40% now
49′We said Chiangmai United at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–39–22
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Chiangmai United win 37%)
59′We said Chiangmai United at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–46–20
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Chiangmai United win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
67′We said Chiangmai United at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–54–17
73′We said Chiangmai United at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Chiangmai United win: 52% at kick-off, 22% now
78′We said Chiangmai United at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
82′We said Chiangmai United at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 13–78–8
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Chiangmai United win: 52% at kick-off, 12% now
86′We said Chiangmai United at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
FTFULL TIME Chiangmai United 1–1 Songkhla
FTChiangmai United 1–1 Songkhla · Chiangmai United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chiangmai United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chiangmai United 52%, draw 24%, Songkhla 24%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Chiangmai United v SongkhlaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chiangmai United win52%

Draw24%

Songkhla win24%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

Venue700th Anniversary Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chiangmai United

Songkhla

3Days since last match3

Last match: 14 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Chiangmai United	6	+1	9
16	Songkhla	6	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chiangmai united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:00 · locked at kick-off

52% The market33%

Us52%

~~Market~~33%

We make Chiangmai United a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 19 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chiangmai United v Songkhla~~1.80 – 1.15

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 5~~8 v 16

~~The market · Chiangmai United win~~33% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chiangmai United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chiangmai United win	52%	33%	+19
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Songkhla win	24%	40%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	34%	33%	+1
Chiangmai United or draw	76%	60%	+16
Chiangmai United clean sheet	32%	–	–
Songkhla clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 6.0 5.8 3.6 1 9.1 11.1 6.1 2.4 2 8.4 9.4 5.4 2.1 3 5.0 5.6 3.2 4 2.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chiangmai United down, Songkhla across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,598 Thai League 2 matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.1% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chiangmai United at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Songkhla away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Chiangmai United, 1.15 for Songkhla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SON 2–1 CHI · CHI 2–1 SON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 5 Sept

CHIANGMAI UNITED

LWWLWL0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–3

SONGKHLA

DLWDLL1–1 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	6	+4	12
2	Khon Kaen United	6	+4	12
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	6	+4	11
4	Satun	6	+3	10
5	Chainat	6	+1	10
6	Phrae United	6	+1	10
7	Kanchanaburi	6	+2	9
8	Chiangmai United	6	+1	9
9	Muang Loei United	6	+3	8
10	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
11	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
12	Police Tero	6	−2	7
13	Nakhon Pathom	6	−2	7
14	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
15	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	6	−1	6
16	Songkhla	6	−2	5
17	Kasetsart FC	6	−6	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3