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Chiangmai United v Kasetsart FC

Chiangmai United

2–0Full time

Kasetsart FC

Thai League 2 · SAT 10 OCT · 700th Anniversary Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Chiangmai United 2–0 Kasetsart FC CHIANGMAI UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chiangmai United win~~55%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.300

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.460

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chiangmai United win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chiangmai United was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–23–21
1′KICK-OFF Chiangmai United v Kasetsart FC
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Chiangmai United win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
45′HALF-TIME Chiangmai United 0–0 Kasetsart FC
46′SECOND HALF Chiangmai United 0–0 Kasetsart FC
58′We said Chiangmai United at 55%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 37–45–18
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Chiangmai United win 37%)
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Chiangmai United 1–0 Kasetsart FC
81′W. Jeong scores for Chiangmai United on 65′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 92–8–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Chiangmai United win: 55% at kick-off, 92% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Chiangmai United win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Chiangmai United 2–0 Kasetsart FC
FTFULL TIME Chiangmai United 2–0 Kasetsart FC
FTChiangmai United 2–0 Kasetsart FC · Chiangmai United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chiangmai United win55%

Draw23%

Kasetsart FC win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

Venue · 700th Anniversary Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chiangmai united winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

55% The market45%

Us55%

~~Market~~45%

We make Chiangmai United a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chiangmai united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chiangmai United win	55%	45%	+11
Draw	23%	28%	−5
Kasetsart FC win	21%	27%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	55%	49%	+7
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	79%	72%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	33%	28%	+5
Chiangmai United or draw	79%	73%	+6
Chiangmai United clean sheet	35%	–	–
Kasetsart FC clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 6.3 5.5 3.1 1 9.8 11.0 5.5 2 9.3 9.5 5.0 3 5.7 5.9 3.1 4 2.7 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chiangmai United down, Kasetsart FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,581 Thai League 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.6% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chiangmai United at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kasetsart FC away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Chiangmai United, 1.05 for Kasetsart FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAS 3–4 CHI · CHI 1–1 KAS · KAS 2–0 CHI · CHI 1–1 KAS

Form · last six in Thai League 2

CHIANGMAI UNITED

WWLWWL3–0 · 4–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1

KASETSART FC

LLLLLD0–1 · 3–4 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	4	+4	9
2	Uttaradit	4	+3	8
3	Muang Loei United	4	+4	7
4	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	+2	7
5	Phrae United	5	0	7
6	Chainat	4	0	7
7	Muangthong United	4	−1	7
8	Satun	4	+2	6
9	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
10	Chiangmai United	4	+1	6
11	Police Tero	4	−1	6
12	Songkhla	4	+1	5
13	Chanthaburi	4	0	4
14	Nakhon Pathom	4	0	4
15	Esan Pattaya	4	−5	4
16	Mahasarakham United	4	−3	3
17	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	4	−2	2
18	Kasetsart FC	4	−6	1