Chanthaburi v Nong Bua Pitchaya prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Chanthaburi 0–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya CHANTHABURI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chanthaburi win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.886

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.787

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chanthaburi win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Chanthaburi v Nong Bua Pitchaya
2′Much as we predicted: Chanthaburi was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
3′Much as we predicted: Chanthaburi was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
45′HALF-TIME Chanthaburi 0–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya
46′SECOND HALF Chanthaburi 0–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Chanthaburi 0–1 Nong Bua Pitchaya
FTFULL TIME Chanthaburi 0–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya
FTChanthaburi 0–0 Nong Bua Pitchaya · Chanthaburi win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Chanthaburi win43%

Draw23%

Nong Bua Pitchaya win33%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueChanthaburi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chanthaburi

Nong Bua Pitchaya

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	+2	7
15	Chanthaburi	4	0	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chanthaburi winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Chanthaburi a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chanthaburi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chanthaburi win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	23%	28%	−4
Nong Bua Pitchaya win	33%	31%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	52%	+12
Both teams to score	65%	57%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	84%	75%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	43%	32%	+11
Chanthaburi or draw	67%	69%	−3
Chanthaburi clean sheet	22%	–	–
Nong Bua Pitchaya clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.3 5.2 4.3 2.3 1 6.1 10.1 7.4 3.9 2 5.7 8.5 6.5 3.4 3 3.4 5.1 3.9 2.0 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chanthaburi down, Nong Bua Pitchaya across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Thai League 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chanthaburi at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Nong Bua Pitchaya away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for Chanthaburi, 1.55 for Nong Bua Pitchaya. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NON 2–1 CHA · CHA 1–0 NON · NON 1–0 CHA · CHA 2–3 NON

Form · last six in Thai League 2

CHANTHABURI

LDLDWL1–2 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 3–4

NONG BUA PITCHAYA

WLWLDW2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	4	+4	9
2	Chiangmai United	5	+3	9
3	Muang Loei United	5	+4	8
4	Uttaradit	4	+3	8
5	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	+2	7
6	Nakhon Pathom	5	+1	7
7	Phrae United	5	0	7
8	Chainat	4	0	7
9	Police Tero	5	−1	7
10	Muangthong United	5	−2	7
11	Satun	4	+2	6
12	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
13	Songkhla	4	+1	5
14	Esan Pattaya	5	−5	5
15	Chanthaburi	4	0	4
16	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	5	−2	3
17	Mahasarakham United	4	−3	3
18	Kasetsart FC	5	−8	1