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Chanthaburi v Nakhon Pathom
ChanthaburiNakhon PathomThai League 2 · WED 14 OCT · Chanthaburi Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Chanthaburi win at 43%.
- 1′KICK-OFF Chanthaburi v Nakhon Pathom
- 2′Much as we predicted: Chanthaburi was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–25
- 23′23′ and it is 1–0: Chanthaburi have scored. 1–0 · 76–18–6
- 23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Chanthaburi 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
- 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Chanthaburi win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
- 24′We published Chanthaburi at 43%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
- 25′Nakhon Pathom find the net on 25′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
- 45′HALF-TIME Chanthaburi 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
- 46′We published Chanthaburi at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
- 46′SECOND HALF Chanthaburi 1–0 Nakhon Pathom
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Chanthaburi win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
- 64′We published Chanthaburi at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Chanthaburi 2–0 Nakhon Pathom
- 71′Chanthaburi find the net on 70′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Chanthaburi win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
- 72′We published Chanthaburi at 43%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
- 78′We published Chanthaburi at 43%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′A goal for Chanthaburi on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Chanthaburi 3–0 Nakhon Pathom
- FTFULL TIME Chanthaburi 3–0 Nakhon Pathom
- FTChanthaburi 3–0 Nakhon Pathom · Chanthaburi win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassChelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.
Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.
Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.
Pre-match prediction
Published 14 Oct 12:01 · locked at kick-off
Chanthaburi win43%Nakhon Pathom win25%Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 12:30
VenueChanthaburi Stadium
Match timeline
All events
ChanthaburiMINNakhon PathomEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · this competition
Chanthaburi
Nakhon Pathom
Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions of these teams
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nakhon Pathom | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 14 | Chanthaburi | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Chanthaburi a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chanthaburi win | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | +3 |
| Nakhon Pathom win | 25% | 23% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% | −9 |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 45% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57% | 64% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 20% | −7 |
| Chanthaburi or draw | 75% | 77% | −3 |
| Chanthaburi clean sheet | 46% | – | – |
| Nakhon Pathom clean sheet | 33% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2025Form · last six in Thai League 2
CHANTHABURI
NAKHON PATHOM
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Uttaradit | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 |  Chainat | 5 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 |  Phrae United | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 |  Satun | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 |  Chiangmai United | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Khon Kaen United | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 |  Kanchanaburi | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 |  Muang Loei United | 6 | 3 | 8 |
| 9 |  Nong Bua Pitchaya | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Nakhon Pathom | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Police Tero | 6 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 |  Muangthong United | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 |  Nakhon Ratchasima FC | 6 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Chanthaburi | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 15 |  Songkhla | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 16 |  Esan Pattaya | 5 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 |  Mahasarakham United | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 |  Kasetsart FC | 5 | -8 | 1 |
The competition's standings.