Chanthaburi v Chiangmai United prediction · Thai League 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ChanthaburiDrawChiangmai United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Chanthaburi 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chanthaburi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chanthaburi 48%, draw 26%, Chiangmai United 26%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Chanthaburi v Chiangmai UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Chanthaburi win48%

Draw26%

Chiangmai United win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueChanthaburi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chanthaburi

Chiangmai United

4Days since last match8

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

Last match: 17 Oct · Thai League 2

4Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
12	Chanthaburi	7	+3	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chanthaburi winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Chanthaburi a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chanthaburi v Chiangmai United~~1.61 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~12 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chanthaburi win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Chiangmai United win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Chanthaburi or draw	74%	–	–
Chanthaburi clean sheet	33%	–	–
Chiangmai United clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 6.8 4.2 1 9.9 12.1 6.5 2.5 2 8.3 9.1 5.1 3 4.5 4.9 2.8 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chanthaburi down, Chiangmai United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,611 Thai League 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 3.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chanthaburi at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chiangmai United away: 1.50 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Chanthaburi, 1.13 for Chiangmai United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~CHA 2–0 CHI · CHI 1–0 CHA · CHI 3–1 CHA · CHA 1–1 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Thai League 2 this season · since 12 Sept

CHANTHABURI

DWLDWD0–0 · 2–0 · 3–4 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

CHIANGMAI UNITED

WWLWLD2–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	7	+6	15
2	Uttaradit	8	+5	15
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	8	+6	14
4	Satun	8	+5	14
5	Chainat	7	+2	13
6	Phrae United	8	0	11
7	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
8	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
9	Police Tero	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	8	−3	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Chanthaburi	7	+3	9
13	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
14	Muangthong United	7	−3	8
15	Esan Pattaya	7	−6	8
16	Songkhla	8	−2	7
17	Mahasarakham United	8	−9	4
18	Kasetsart FC	8	−10	4