Chainat v Uttaradit prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Chainat 3–2 Uttaradit CHAINAT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chainat win~~42%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.498

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.700

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chainat win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Chainat was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–26–31
1′KICK-OFF Chainat v Uttaradit
8′Chainat score on 8′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–18–13
8′We published Chainat at 42%. Our model now makes it 69%. 1–0 · 69–18–13
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Chainat 1–0 Uttaradit
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Chainat win: 42% at kick-off, 69% now
17′We published Chainat at 42%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–12
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 71–19–10
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Chainat win: 42% at kick-off, 72% now
45′HALF-TIME Chainat 1–0 Uttaradit
46′SECOND HALF Chainat 1–0 Uttaradit
51′Uttaradit find the net on 51′. 1–1. 1–1 · 32–42–26
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Chainat 1–1 Uttaradit
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Chainat win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Chainat win 32%)
56′We said Chainat at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 30–46–24
58′We said Chainat at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–47–23
62′A goal for Chainat on 61′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–18–4
62′We published Chainat at 42%. Our model now makes it 78%. 2–1 · 78–18–4
62′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 78–18–4
62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Chainat 2–1 Uttaradit
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Chainat win: 42% at kick-off, 78% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Chainat win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
66′We published Chainat at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Chainat win: 42% at kick-off, 82% now
71′Chainat score on 71′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
71′We published Chainat at 42%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
71′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Chainat 3–1 Uttaradit
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Chainat win: 42% at kick-off, 98% now
83′We published Chainat at 42%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′Uttaradit find the net on 90′. 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Chainat 3–2 Uttaradit
96′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Chainat 3–2 Uttaradit
FTChainat 3–2 Uttaradit · Chainat win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chainat are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chainat 42%, draw 26%, Uttaradit 31%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Chainat v UttaraditBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chainat win42%

Draw26%

Uttaradit win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueChai Nat Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chainat

Uttaradit

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Thai League 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chainat winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:19 · locked at kick-off

42% The market32%

Us42%

~~Market~~32%

We make Chainat a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chainat v Uttaradit~~1.51 – 1.26

~~Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 4 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 12~~7 v 1

~~The market · Chainat win~~32% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Chainat win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chainat win	42%	32%	+10
Draw	26%	30%	−4
Uttaradit win	31%	38%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	52%	48%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	76%	71%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	30%	29%	+1
Chainat or draw	69%	62%	+7
Chainat clean sheet	29%	–	–
Uttaradit clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.1 7.5 5.0 2.2 1 9.1 12.2 7.3 3.1 2 7.1 8.7 5.4 2.3 3 3.6 4.4 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chainat down, Uttaradit across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,603 Thai League 2 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Chainat at home: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Uttaradit away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Chainat, 1.26 for Uttaradit. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 2 this season · since 4 Sept

CHAINAT

WLDWWL3–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–2

UTTARADIT

DWDWWD0–0 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 4–3 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Uttaradit	6	+4	12
2	Khon Kaen United	6	+4	12
3	Nong Bua Pitchaya	7	+3	11
4	Satun	6	+3	10
5	Kanchanaburi	7	+2	10
6	Chiangmai United	7	+1	10
7	Chainat	6	+1	10
8	Police Tero	7	0	10
9	Phrae United	7	0	10
10	Nakhon Pathom	7	−1	10
11	Muang Loei United	7	+3	9
12	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	7	0	9
13	Chanthaburi	6	+3	8
14	Esan Pattaya	6	−4	8
15	Muangthong United	6	−3	7
16	Songkhla	7	−2	6
17	Kasetsart FC	7	−8	4
18	Mahasarakham United	6	−6	3