Chainat v Songkhla prediction · Thai League 2

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Chainat 2–0 Songkhla CHAINAT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chainat win~~47%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.427

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chainat win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chainat 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Chainat v Songkhla
2′Little has changed for our model: Chainat 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–26–27
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Chainat win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Chainat win: 47% at kick-off, 43% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Chainat 1–0 Songkhla
45′HALF-TIME Chainat 1–0 Songkhla
46′SECOND HALF Chainat 1–0 Songkhla
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Chainat win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Chainat win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Chainat win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
90′⚽ GOAL · 96' Chainat 2–0 Songkhla
FTFULL TIME Chainat 2–0 Songkhla
FTChainat 2–0 Songkhla · Chainat win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Chainat win47%

Draw27%

Songkhla win27%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueChai Nat Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Chainat

Songkhla

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Chainat	4	0	7
13	Songkhla	4	+1	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chainat winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

47% The market37%

Us47%

~~Market~~37%

We make Chainat a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chainat win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chainat win	47%	37%	+10
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Songkhla win	27%	35%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	51%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	56%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	74%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−4
Chainat or draw	73%	65%	+8
Chainat clean sheet	35%	–	–
Songkhla clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 8.7 7.8 4.4 1 11.2 12.5 6.3 2.3 2 8.6 8.9 4.7 3 4.4 4.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chainat down, Songkhla across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,585 Thai League 2 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.3% of games this season, across 41 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chainat at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Songkhla away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Chainat, 1.06 for Songkhla. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SON 2–0 CHA · CHA 4–3 SON

Form · last six in Thai League 2

CHAINAT

LLWLDW1–3 · 1–2 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1

SONGKHLA

LLDLWD0–1 · 1–5 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khon Kaen United	4	+4	9
2	Chiangmai United	5	+3	9
3	Muang Loei United	5	+4	8
4	Uttaradit	4	+3	8
5	Nong Bua Pitchaya	4	+2	7
6	Nakhon Pathom	5	+1	7
7	Phrae United	5	0	7
8	Chainat	4	0	7
9	Police Tero	5	−1	7
10	Muangthong United	5	−2	7
11	Satun	4	+2	6
12	Kanchanaburi	5	+1	6
13	Songkhla	4	+1	5
14	Esan Pattaya	5	−5	5
15	Chanthaburi	4	0	4
16	Nakhon Ratchasima FC	5	−2	3
17	Mahasarakham United	4	−3	3
18	Kasetsart FC	5	−8	1