Uthai Thani v Sukhothai FC prediction · Thai League 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Uthai ThaniDrawSukhothai FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Uthai Thani 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uthai Thani are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uthai Thani 56%, draw 25%, Sukhothai FC 19%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Uthai Thani v Sukhothai FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Uthai Thani win56%

Draw25%

Sukhothai FC win19%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueUthai Thani Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uthai Thani

Sukhothai FC

5Days since last match5

Last match: 20 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
11	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uthai thani winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Uthai Thani a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uthai Thani v Sukhothai FC~~1.83 – 0.98

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L1 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~5 v 11

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uthai Thani win	56%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Sukhothai FC win	19%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Uthai Thani or draw	81%	–	–
Uthai Thani clean sheet	38%	–	–
Sukhothai FC clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 7.2 5.0 2.9 1 10.1 11.6 5.2 2 10.0 9.6 4.7 3 6.1 5.9 2.9 4 2.9 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uthai Thani down, Sukhothai FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,244 Thai League 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.43 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Uthai Thani at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sukhothai FC away: 0.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Uthai Thani, 0.98 for Sukhothai FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SUK 1–1 UTH · UTH 1–1 SUK · UTH 3–0 SUK · UTH 0–1 SUK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 6 Sept

UTHAI THANI

WLWWD4–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 1–1

SUKHOTHAI FC

LLWLW1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–6 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Port FC	6	+7	15
2	Buriram United	6	+4	13
3	Prachuap	5	+5	12
4	Ratchaburi	6	+6	10
5	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
6	Sisaket United	6	0	10
7	BG Pathum United	6	+2	9
8	Bangkok United	5	+2	9
9	Rayong FC	6	−2	8
10	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
11	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
12	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
13	Chiangrai United	6	−4	4
14	Pattani	5	−4	4
15	Chonburi FC	6	−4	3
16	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1