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Uthai Thani v Rasi Salai United

Uthai Thani

4–2Full time

Rasi Salai United

Thai League 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Uthai Thani 4–2 Rasi Salai United UTHAI THANI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Uthai Thani win~~54%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.318

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.244

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Uthai Thani win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Uthai Thani 54% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–23–22
1′KICK-OFF Uthai Thani v Rasi Salai United
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Uthai Thani 1–0 Rasi Salai United
11′⚽ GOAL · 12' Uthai Thani 1–0 Rasi Salai United
15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Uthai Thani 2–0 Rasi Salai United · Benjamin Davis
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' Uthai Thani 2–0 Rasi Salai United · Willian Lira Sousa
21′16′ and it is 2–0: Willian Lira Sousa on the scoresheet for Uthai Thani. 2–0 · 93–5–2
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Uthai Thani win: 54% at kick-off, 93% now
38′We said Uthai Thani at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Uthai Thani win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
45′Rasi Salai United ahead on 45′ through Somyos Pongsuwan. 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–5
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Uthai Thani 2–1 Rasi Salai United · Somyos Pongsuwan
45′HALF-TIME Uthai Thani 2–1 Rasi Salai United
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Uthai Thani win: 54% at kick-off, 80% now
45′SECOND HALF Uthai Thani 2–1 Rasi Salai United
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rasi Salai United · On: nelson orji chukwuma · Off: Matías Panigazzi Corrected
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Uthai Thani 2–1 Rasi Salai United · Somyos Pongsuwan (assist Gilberto Macena)
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Uthai Thani 3–1 Rasi Salai United · Somyos Pongsuwan
54′⚽ GOAL · 53' Uthai Thani 3–1 Rasi Salai United · Trent Buhagiar
57′Trent Buhagiar scores for Uthai Thani on 53′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Uthai Thani win: 54% at kick-off, 97% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rasi Salai United · On: Ji-Min Kim · Off: Sekou Gassama Corrected
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Ratthanakorn Maikami · Uthai Thani
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Uthai Thani · On: Julio Vitor Souza Ferreira · Off: Trent Buhagiar Corrected
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Uthai Thani 3–2 Rasi Salai United · Trent Buhagiar
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Uthai Thani 3–2 Rasi Salai United · Ji-Min Kim
77′70′ and it is 3–2: Ji-Min Kim on the scoresheet for Rasi Salai United. 3–2 · 89–10–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Uthai Thani win: 54% at kick-off, 89% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Rasi Salai United · On: Ricardo Gué Rosa Cardoso · Off: Nattapon Yongsakool Corrected
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Suporn Peenagatapho · Uthai Thani
94′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rasi Salai United · On: Jakkit Palapon · Off: Gilberto Macena Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Uthai Thani · On: Pablo Dias De Souza Almeida · Off: Ratthanakorn Maikami Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Uthai Thani · On: Possawee Muanmart · Off: Wattana Playnum Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Uthai Thani · On: Sirimongkol Rattanapoom · Off: Suporn Peenagatapho Corrected
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Uthai Thani · On: Santipap Yaemsaen · Off: Julio Vitor Souza Ferreira Corrected
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Uthai Thani 4–2 Rasi Salai United · Ji-Min Kim
FTFULL TIME Uthai Thani 4–2 Rasi Salai United
FTUthai Thani 4–2 Rasi Salai United · Uthai Thani win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Uthai Thani win54%

Draw25%

Rasi Salai United win21%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Uthai Thani

4-2-3-1

97 Caique

5 S. Peenagatapho

13 Jeong Tae-Wook

19 W. Playnum

3 C. Charalampous

25 R. Maikami

77 Robertinho

7 T. Buhagiar

10 B. Davis

22 Kelvin

99 W. Lira

Coach · Torreira da Gama Lima Casado Alexandre

Substitutes

26 · C. Boonloet

95 · T. Phukab

24 · S. Yaemsaen

4 · P. Muanmart

62 · A. Doloh

21 · Tann Sirimongkol

92 · A. Meethoum

6 · P. Dias

35 · S. Chatthong

20 · N. Naksawat

91 · Julio Vitor

29 · A. Boodjinda

Rasi Salai United

4-2-3-1

12 Gabriel Bernard

80 Gabriel Davis

30 T. Photumtha

2 N. Malapun

19 A. Nusonsala

32 S. Pongsuwan

77 N. Yongsakool

91 S. Gassama

10 Gilberto Macena

20 C. Rosa

35 M. Panigazzi

Coach · Sirisak Yodyardthai

Substitutes

1 · K. Pimyotha

26 · N. Orji

93 · P. Petra

4 · C. Mueanta

97 · P. Wongsa

23 · J. Chingchaiyaphum

28 · T. Khrutthasarn

9 · Kim Ji-Min

99 · S. Jodjam

39 · J. Palapon

11 · R. Cardoso

18 · T. Rojtearawanich

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Uthai Thani

4-2-3-1

97 Caique

5 S. Peenagatapho

13 Jeong Tae-Wook

19 W. Playnum

3 C. Charalampous

25 R. Maikami

77 Robertinho

7 T. Buhagiar

10 B. Davis

22 Kelvin

99 W. Lira

Coach · Torreira da Gama Lima Casado Alexandre

Substitutes

26 · C. Boonloet

95 · T. Phukab

24 · S. Yaemsaen

4 · P. Muanmart

62 · A. Doloh

21 · Tann Sirimongkol

92 · A. Meethoum

6 · P. Dias

35 · S. Chatthong

20 · N. Naksawat

91 · Julio Vitor

29 · A. Boodjinda

Rasi Salai United

4-2-3-1

12 Gabriel Bernard

80 Gabriel Davis

30 T. Photumtha

2 N. Malapun

19 A. Nusonsala

32 S. Pongsuwan

77 N. Yongsakool

91 S. Gassama

10 Gilberto Macena

20 C. Rosa

35 M. Panigazzi

Coach · Sirisak Yodyardthai

Substitutes

1 · K. Pimyotha

26 · N. Orji

93 · P. Petra

4 · C. Mueanta

97 · P. Wongsa

23 · J. Chingchaiyaphum

28 · T. Khrutthasarn

9 · Kim Ji-Min

99 · S. Jodjam

39 · J. Palapon

11 · R. Cardoso

18 · T. Rojtearawanich

Our number · uthai thani winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

54% The market60%

Us54%

~~Market~~60%

We make Uthai Thani a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · uthai thani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uthai Thani win	54%	60%	−6
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Rasi Salai United win	21%	17%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	0
Both teams to score	55%	52%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	−1
Uthai Thani or draw	79%	83%	−4
Uthai Thani clean sheet	35%	–	–
Rasi Salai United clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.9 5.1 3.2 1 9.4 11.6 5.7 2.0 2 9.2 9.5 5.0 3 5.6 5.8 3.1 4 2.6 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uthai Thani down, Rasi Salai United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,225 Thai League 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Uthai Thani at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rasi Salai United away: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

1.82 goals for Uthai Thani, 1.06 for Rasi Salai United. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 13:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Thai League 1

UTHAI THANI

DLLWLW1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 2–1

RASI SALAI UNITED

LLD1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
2	Buriram United	3	+3	7
3	Rayong FC	3	+2	7
4	Uthai Thani	3	+3	6
5	Prachuap	3	+3	6
6	Bangkok United	3	+2	6
7	Port FC	3	+1	6
8	Ayutthaya FC	3	+1	6
9	BG Pathum United	3	0	4
10	Chiangrai United	3	0	4
11	Pattani	3	−2	4
12	Sisaket United	3	−2	3
13	Sukhothai FC	4	−8	3
14	Rasi Salai United	3	−2	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	−4	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	−3	0