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Sukhothai FC v Rasi Salai United

Sukhothai FC
5–1Full time
Rasi Salai United

Thai League 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Thung Thalay Luang Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Sukhothai FC 5–1 Rasi Salai United SUKHOTHAI FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Sukhothai FC win44%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.475
The market’s Brier score0.390

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay24 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sukhothai FC win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Sukhothai FC 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sukhothai FC v Rasi Salai United
  4. 17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Jirawat Thongsaengphrao · Sukhothai FC
  5. 18′We said Sukhothai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–58
  6. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Sukhothai FC 0–1 Rasi Salai United
  7. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Rasi Salai United win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Sukhothai FC win 19%)
  9. 21′Nattapon Yongsakool scores for Rasi Salai United on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
  10. 21′Nattapon Yongsakool scores for Rasi Salai United on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 16–23–61
  12. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sukhothai FC 1–1 Rasi Salai United
  13. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
  14. 37′36′: Ratchanat Aranpiroj on the scoresheet for Sukhothai FC, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–35–27
  15. 40′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Rasi Salai United · On: Caio Rosa Alves · Off: Jirawat Chingchaiyaphum
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Sukhothai FC 1–1 Rasi Salai United
  17. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sukhothai FC · On: Surawich Lokavit · Off: Yan Victor Silva Paixão
  18. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rasi Salai United · On: Somyos Pongsuwan · Off: Thitiphong Photumtha
  19. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sukhothai FC · On: Gustavo Apis Pascoal De Farias · Off: Barreto
  20. 48′Sukhothai FC have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 36–38–26
  21. 48′8 shots for Sukhothai FC, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 36–38–26
  22. 48′HALF-TIME Sukhothai FC 1–1 Rasi Salai United
  23. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Rasi Salai United win 25%)
  24. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  25. 54′We said Sukhothai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–44–24
  26. 61′We said Sukhothai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
  27. 62′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–1 · 78–18–4
  28. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Sukhothai FC 2–1 Rasi Salai United
  29. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 78% now
  30. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Sukhothai FC win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
  31. 63′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–4
  32. 64′Sukhothai FC ahead on 63′ through Alberto Moreira·Gouvea. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–17–4
  33. 65′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  34. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Rasi Salai United · On: Paripan Wongsa · Off: Piyawat Petra
  35. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Somyos Pongsuwan · Rasi Salai United
  36. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  37. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sukhothai FC · On: Athirat Jantrapho · Off: Ratchanat Aranpiroj
  38. 75′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
  39. 80′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  40. 80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  41. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Rasi Salai United · On: Nattapon Malapun · Off: nelson orji chukwuma
  42. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Sukhothai FC 3–1 Rasi Salai United
  43. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
  44. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Rasi Salai United · On: Matías Panigazzi · Off: Paripan Wongsa
  45. 82′Gustavo Apis Pascoal De Farias scores for Sukhothai FC on 80′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–0–0
  46. 83′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  47. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Gustavo Apis Pascoal De Farias · Sukhothai FC
  48. 84′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  49. 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Sukhothai FC 4–1 Rasi Salai United
  50. 85′84′: Alberto Moreira·Gouvea on the scoresheet for Sukhothai FC, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  51. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Nattapon Yongsakool · Rasi Salai United
  52. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sukhothai FC · On: Luan · Off: Jirawat Thongsaengphrao Corrected
  53. 90′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  54. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Sukhothai FC 5–1 Rasi Salai United
  55. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Sukhothai FC · On: Nathan Palafoz · Off: Jefferson Mateus de Assis Estácio
  56. 91′Sukhothai FC ahead on 90′ through Nathan Palafoz. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  57. 95′5–1 at the end. Our 44% on Sukhothai FC comes in. 5–1 · 100–0–0
  58. FTFULL TIME Sukhothai FC 5–1 Rasi Salai United
  59. FTSukhothai FC 5–1 Rasi Salai United · Sukhothai FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sukhothai FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sukhothai FC 44%, draw 27%, Rasi Salai United 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Sukhothai FC v Rasi Salai UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sukhothai FC win44%
Draw27%
Rasi Salai United win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueThung Thalay Luang Stadium

Line-ups

Sukhothai FC

4-2-3-1

Rasi Salai United

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sukhothai FC

Rasi Salai United

8Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Thai League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Sukhothai FC4−83
15Rasi Salai United4−41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sukhothai FC

4-2-3-1

99 K. Saensuk

5 Yan Victor Silva Paixão

15 S. Promsupa

93 Cláudio

2 Jirawat Thongsaengphrao

80 Murilo de Souza Felisberto

8 R. Arunyapairot

7 Alberto Moreira·Gouvea

10 Barreto

28 Rhuan da Silveira Castro

94 Jefferson

Coach · Rattee Ueathanaphaisarn

Substitutes

70 · Luan

25 · N. Naengwongsa

6 · S. Logarwit

19 · Phiraphat Khamphaeng

3 · W. Sawatlakhorn

12 · C. Srinawong

27 · T. Thumporn

9 · Nathan Palafoz

4 · S. Kanlayanabandit

14 · A. Jantrapho

20 · N. Jandke

11 · Gustavo Apis Pascoal De Farias

Rasi Salai United

4-2-3-1

99 S. Sukprasert

23 J. Chingchaiyaphum

30 Thitiphong Photumtha

26 N. Orji

19 Aphisit Nusonsala

80 Gabriel Davis dos Santos

77 Nattapon Yongsakool

39 J. Palapon

10 Gilberto Macena

93 P. Petra

9 Kim Ji-Min

Coach · S. Yodyadthai

Substitutes

91 · S. Gassama

11 · Ricardo Gué Rosa Cardoso

28 · Thanongsak Khrutthasarn

2 · N. Malapun

4 · Chotika Mueanta

35 · M. Panigazzi

1 · Kiattisak Pimyotha

32 · Somyos Pongsuwan

18 · Thanachianchot Rojtearawanich

20 · Caio Rosa Alves

97 · P. Wongsa

Our number · sukhothai fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
44% The market49%
Us44%
Market49%

We make Sukhothai FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sukhothai FC v Rasi Salai United1.58 – 1.26
Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 SeptW1 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L3
Table places · points 3 v 114 v 15
The market · Sukhothai FC win49% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 11:48
Our probability · Sukhothai FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sukhothai FC win44%49%−5
Draw27%25%+2
Rasi Salai United win30%26%+4
Over 2.5 goals54%57%−3
Both teams to score57%58%−1
Over 1.5 goals78%78%0
Over 3.5 goals32%36%−4
Sukhothai FC or draw70%74%−4
Sukhothai FC clean sheet29%––
Rasi Salai United clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%
0123450 7.2 6.4 4.7 1 8.3 12.5 7.2 3.1 2 7.3 8.9 5.6 2.4 3 3.9 4.7 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sukhothai FC down, Rasi Salai United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

SUKHOTHAI FC

LLWL1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–6

RASI SALAI UNITED

LLDL1–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–4

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Buriram United4+410
2Uthai Thani4+59
3Bangkok United4+49
4Prachuap4+49
5Port FC4+29
6Ratchaburi4+67
7Rayong FC4+17
8Ayutthaya FC5−17
9Sisaket United4−16
10BG Pathum United405
11Chiangrai United4−14
12Pattani4−34
13Lamphun Warrior5−44
14Sukhothai FC4−83
15Rasi Salai United4−41
16Chonburi FC4−40

The competition's standings before kick-off.