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Sukhothai FC v Rasi Salai United
Sukhothai FC
Rasi Salai UnitedThai League 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Thung Thalay Luang Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Sukhothai FC win at 44%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Sukhothai FC 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–30
- 1′KICK-OFF Sukhothai FC v Rasi Salai United
- 17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Jirawat Thongsaengphrao · Sukhothai FC
- 18′We said Sukhothai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–58
- 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Sukhothai FC 0–1 Rasi Salai United
- 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
- 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Rasi Salai United win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Sukhothai FC win 19%)
- 21′Nattapon Yongsakool scores for Rasi Salai United on 20′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
- 21′Nattapon Yongsakool scores for Rasi Salai United on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 18–23–59
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 16–23–61
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Sukhothai FC 1–1 Rasi Salai United
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
- 37′36′: Ratchanat Aranpiroj on the scoresheet for Sukhothai FC, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–35–27
- 40′SUBSTITUTION · 39' Rasi Salai United · On: Caio Rosa Alves · Off: Jirawat Chingchaiyaphum
- 45′SECOND HALF Sukhothai FC 1–1 Rasi Salai United
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sukhothai FC · On: Surawich Lokavit · Off: Yan Victor Silva Paixão
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rasi Salai United · On: Somyos Pongsuwan · Off: Thitiphong Photumtha
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sukhothai FC · On: Gustavo Apis Pascoal De Farias · Off: Barreto
- 48′Sukhothai FC have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 36–38–26
- 48′8 shots for Sukhothai FC, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 36–38–26
- 48′HALF-TIME Sukhothai FC 1–1 Rasi Salai United
- 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Rasi Salai United win 25%)
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
- 54′We said Sukhothai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–44–24
- 61′We said Sukhothai FC at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–49–22
- 62′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 2–1 · 78–18–4
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Sukhothai FC 2–1 Rasi Salai United
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 78% now
- 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Sukhothai FC win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
- 63′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–17–4
- 64′Sukhothai FC ahead on 63′ through Alberto Moreira·Gouvea. 2–1. 2–1 · 79–17–4
- 65′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Rasi Salai United · On: Paripan Wongsa · Off: Piyawat Petra
- 70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Somyos Pongsuwan · Rasi Salai United
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
- 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Sukhothai FC · On: Athirat Jantrapho · Off: Ratchanat Aranpiroj
- 75′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
- 80′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 80′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Rasi Salai United · On: Nattapon Malapun · Off: nelson orji chukwuma
- 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Sukhothai FC 3–1 Rasi Salai United
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Sukhothai FC win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
- 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Rasi Salai United · On: Matías Panigazzi · Off: Paripan Wongsa
- 82′Gustavo Apis Pascoal De Farias scores for Sukhothai FC on 80′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–0–0
- 83′We said Sukhothai FC at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 83′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Gustavo Apis Pascoal De Farias · Sukhothai FC
- 84′5 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Sukhothai FC 4–1 Rasi Salai United
- 85′84′: Alberto Moreira·Gouvea on the scoresheet for Sukhothai FC, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Nattapon Yongsakool · Rasi Salai United
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sukhothai FC · On: Luan · Off: Jirawat Thongsaengphrao Corrected
- 90′That is 6, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Sukhothai FC 5–1 Rasi Salai United
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Sukhothai FC · On: Nathan Palafoz · Off: Jefferson Mateus de Assis Estácio
- 91′Sukhothai FC ahead on 90′ through Nathan Palafoz. 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 95′5–1 at the end. Our 44% on Sukhothai FC comes in. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Sukhothai FC 5–1 Rasi Salai United
- FTSukhothai FC 5–1 Rasi Salai United · Sukhothai FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassSukhothai FC are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Sukhothai FC 44%, draw 27%, Rasi Salai United 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Sukhothai FC win44%
Rasi Salai United win30%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00
RoundMatchday 5
VenueThung Thalay Luang Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Sukhothai FCMIN
Rasi Salai UnitedEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Sukhothai FC
4-2-3-1
Rasi Salai United
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Sukhothai FC
Rasi Salai United
Last match: 9 Oct · Thai League 1
Last match: 10 Oct · Thai League 1
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Sukhothai FC
4-2-3-1
99 K. Saensuk
5 Yan Victor Silva Paixão
15 S. Promsupa
93 Cláudio
2 Jirawat Thongsaengphrao
80 Murilo de Souza Felisberto
8 R. Arunyapairot
7 Alberto Moreira·Gouvea
10 Barreto
28 Rhuan da Silveira Castro
94 Jefferson
Coach · Rattee Ueathanaphaisarn
Substitutes
70 · Luan
25 · N. Naengwongsa
6 · S. Logarwit
19 · Phiraphat Khamphaeng
3 · W. Sawatlakhorn
12 · C. Srinawong
27 · T. Thumporn
9 · Nathan Palafoz
4 · S. Kanlayanabandit
14 · A. Jantrapho
20 · N. Jandke
11 · Gustavo Apis Pascoal De Farias
Rasi Salai United
4-2-3-1
99 S. Sukprasert
23 J. Chingchaiyaphum
30 Thitiphong Photumtha
26 N. Orji
19 Aphisit Nusonsala
80 Gabriel Davis dos Santos
77 Nattapon Yongsakool
39 J. Palapon
10 Gilberto Macena
93 P. Petra
9 Kim Ji-Min
Coach · S. Yodyadthai
Substitutes
91 · S. Gassama
11 · Ricardo Gué Rosa Cardoso
28 · Thanongsak Khrutthasarn
2 · N. Malapun
4 · Chotika Mueanta
35 · M. Panigazzi
1 · Kiattisak Pimyotha
32 · Somyos Pongsuwan
18 · Thanachianchot Rojtearawanich
20 · Caio Rosa Alves
97 · P. Wongsa
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Sukhothai FC
4-2-3-1
99 K. Saensuk
5 Yan Victor Silva Paixão
15 S. Promsupa
93 Cláudio
2 Jirawat Thongsaengphrao
80 Murilo de Souza Felisberto
8 R. Arunyapairot
7 Alberto Moreira·Gouvea
10 Barreto
28 Rhuan da Silveira Castro
94 Jefferson
Coach · Rattee Ueathanaphaisarn
Substitutes
70 · Luan
25 · N. Naengwongsa
6 · S. Logarwit
19 · Phiraphat Khamphaeng
3 · W. Sawatlakhorn
12 · C. Srinawong
27 · T. Thumporn
9 · Nathan Palafoz
4 · S. Kanlayanabandit
14 · A. Jantrapho
20 · N. Jandke
11 · Gustavo Apis Pascoal De Farias
Rasi Salai United
4-2-3-1
99 S. Sukprasert
23 J. Chingchaiyaphum
30 Thitiphong Photumtha
26 N. Orji
19 Aphisit Nusonsala
80 Gabriel Davis dos Santos
77 Nattapon Yongsakool
39 J. Palapon
10 Gilberto Macena
93 P. Petra
9 Kim Ji-Min
Coach · S. Yodyadthai
Substitutes
91 · S. Gassama
11 · Ricardo Gué Rosa Cardoso
28 · Thanongsak Khrutthasarn
2 · N. Malapun
4 · Chotika Mueanta
35 · M. Panigazzi
1 · Kiattisak Pimyotha
32 · Somyos Pongsuwan
18 · Thanachianchot Rojtearawanich
20 · Caio Rosa Alves
97 · P. Wongsa
We make Sukhothai FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sukhothai FC win | 44% | 49% | −5 |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | +2 |
| Rasi Salai United win | 30% | 26% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 57% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 36% | −4 |
| Sukhothai FC or draw | 70% | 74% | −4 |
| Sukhothai FC clean sheet | 29% | – | – |
| Rasi Salai United clean sheet | 21% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2025/26No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept
SUKHOTHAI FC
RASI SALAI UNITED
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 4 | +4 | 10 |
| 2 | Uthai Thani | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 3 | Bangkok United | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 4 | Prachuap | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 5 | Port FC | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Ratchaburi | 4 | +6 | 7 |
| 7 | Rayong FC | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | −1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sisaket United | 4 | −1 | 6 |
| 10 | BG Pathum United | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Chiangrai United | 4 | −1 | 4 |
| 12 | Pattani | 4 | −3 | 4 |
| 13 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | −4 | 4 |
| 14 | Sukhothai FC | 4 | −8 | 3 |
| 15 | Rasi Salai United | 4 | −4 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 4 | −4 | 0 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Buriram United
Uthai Thani
Bangkok United
Prachuap
Port FC
Ratchaburi
Rayong FC
Ayutthaya FC
Sisaket United
BG Pathum United
Chiangrai United
Pattani
Lamphun Warrior
Chonburi FC