Sukhothai FC v Ayutthaya FC prediction · Thai League 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sukhothai FCDrawAyutthaya FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sukhothai FC 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sukhothai FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sukhothai FC 45%, draw 28%, Ayutthaya FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sukhothai FC v Ayutthaya FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Sukhothai FC win45%

Draw28%

Ayutthaya FC win27%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueThalay Luang Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sukhothai FC

Ayutthaya FC

10Days since last match9

Last match: 20 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
11	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sukhothai fc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Sukhothai FC a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sukhothai FC v Ayutthaya FC~~1.50 – 1.11

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D0 L3 · W2 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~11 v 10

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sukhothai FC win	45%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Ayutthaya FC win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Sukhothai FC or draw	73%	–	–
Sukhothai FC clean sheet	33%	–	–
Ayutthaya FC clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.7 7.1 4.6 1 9.9 13.1 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 9.0 5.0 3 4.1 4.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sukhothai FC down, Ayutthaya FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,244 Thai League 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sukhothai FC at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ayutthaya FC away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Sukhothai FC, 1.11 for Ayutthaya FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~SUK 1–1 AYU · AYU 1–1 SUK · AYU 1–2 SUK · SUK 5–0 AYU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 6 Sept

SUKHOTHAI FC

LLWLW1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–6 · 5–1

AYUTTHAYA FC

WWLDL2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Port FC	6	+7	15
2	Buriram United	6	+4	13
3	Prachuap	5	+5	12
4	Ratchaburi	6	+6	10
5	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
6	Sisaket United	6	0	10
7	BG Pathum United	6	+2	9
8	Bangkok United	5	+2	9
9	Rayong FC	6	−2	8
10	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
11	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
12	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
13	Chiangrai United	6	−4	4
14	Pattani	5	−4	4
15	Chonburi FC	6	−4	3
16	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1