Sisaket United v Chonburi FC prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:05

Sisaket United 2–1 Chonburi FC SISAKET UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sisaket United win~~43%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.494

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sisaket United win at 43%.
0′Much as we predicted: Sisaket United was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Sisaket United v Chonburi FC
2′Much as we predicted: Sisaket United was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–30
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Chaowat Veerachat · Chonburi FC
30′SUBSTITUTION · 28' Chonburi FC · On: Dennis Murillo Skrzypiec · Off: Tomoyuki Doi Corrected
30′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Kittipong Wongma · Sisaket United
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Peerapat Notchaiya · Chonburi FC
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Sisaket United win 34%)
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Sisaket United win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Draw 32%)
45′SECOND HALF Sisaket United 0–0 Chonburi FC
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Sisaket United win 34%)
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Sisaket United win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Draw 32%)
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sisaket United · On: Sittichok Kannoo · Off: Denis Paul Kun Darbellay Corrected
47′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Guilherme Ferreira Pinto · Chonburi FC
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Sisaket United 1–0 Chonburi FC
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Sisaket United 1–0 Chonburi FC · Kevin Ray Hansen
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Sisaket United 2–0 Chonburi FC · Kevin Ray Hansen
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Chonburi FC · On: Tristan Do · Off: Peerapat Notchaiya Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sisaket United · On: Suphaphon Sutthisak · Off: Narongrit Kamnet Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Sisaket United · On: Pongsakron Hanrattana · Off: Patrick Valverde Peral Lopez Corrected
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Sisaket United 1–1 Chonburi FC · Kevin Ray Hansen
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Chonburi FC · On: Channarong Promsrikaew · Off: Yotsakon Burapha Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Chonburi FC · On: Korawich Tasa · Off: Ryoma Ito Corrected
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Sisaket United 1–1 Chonburi FC · Dennis Murillo Skrzypiec
85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Pongsakron Hanrattana · Sisaket United
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Sisaket United 2–1 Chonburi FC · Dennis Murillo Skrzypiec
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Sisaket United 2–1 Chonburi FC · Jefesson Vieira Eufrazio
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Sisaket United · On: Anderson Carneiro · Off: Sittichok Kannoo Corrected
93′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Guilherme Baldo Borech · Sisaket United
FTFULL TIME Sisaket United 2–1 Chonburi FC
FTSisaket United 2–1 Chonburi FC · Sisaket United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sisaket United win43%

Draw28%

Chonburi FC win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:30

VenueSri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium

Line-ups

Sisaket United

4-2-3-1

Chonburi FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sisaket United

Chonburi FC

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Sisaket United	3	−2	3
16	Chonburi FC	3	−3	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sisaket United

4-2-3-1

77 S. van Dijk

3 Borech

5 P. Kaena

35 I. Honny

45 C. Klinchampasri

23 N. Kamnet

19 K. Wongma

2 D. Darbellay

20 Patrick Valverde

7 A. Mermoz

9 Jefinho

Coach · Somchai Chuayboonchum

Substitutes

27 · P. Intarapim

92 · T. Paibulkijcharoen

67 · A. Bua-ngnam

6 · Anderson Nascimento

88 · S. Nimma

37 · S. Sutthisak

11 · P. Phengchaem

22 · P. Hanrattana

55 · K. Nanthawong

97 · S. Pongson

10 · Deyvison

99 · S. Kannoo

Chonburi FC

4-2-3-1

1 K. Mendoza

23 S. Channgom

2 Kike Linares

47 Jorge Fellipe

3 P. Notchaiya

14 C. Veerachart

17 T. Doi

10 Negueba

8 Y. Burapha

41 R. Ito

18 S. Junior

Coach · Rangsan Viwatchaichok

Substitutes

46 · N. Kadtoon

19 · T. Do

6 · Wellington Priori

5 · N. Sayriya

15 · S. Sontisawat

80 · C. Tapsuvanavon

32 · R. Moraksa

30 · Bruno Ritter

7 · C. Promsrikaew

11 · K. Tasa

9 · Dennis Murillo

Our number · sisaket united winPublished 11 Oct 12:33

43% The market32%

Us43%

~~Market~~32%

We make Sisaket United a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sisaket united win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sisaket United win	43%	32%	+11
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Chonburi FC win	29%	39%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	48%	45%	+3
Both teams to score	53%	51%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	69%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	27%	25%	+1
Sisaket United or draw	71%	61%	+10
Sisaket United clean sheet	32%	–	–
Chonburi FC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.8 7.5 5.0 1 9.7 13.2 7.0 2.7 2 7.8 8.7 5.0 3 3.8 4.2 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sisaket United down, Chonburi FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Thai League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Sisaket United at home: 0.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 1). Chonburi FC away: 1.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Sisaket United, 1.16 for Chonburi FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 12:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Thai League 1

SISAKET UNITED

LLW1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0

CHONBURI FC

DDWLLL0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buriram United	4	+4	10
2	Uthai Thani	4	+5	9
3	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
4	Rayong FC	4	+1	7
5	Ayutthaya FC	4	+1	7
6	Prachuap	3	+3	6
7	Bangkok United	3	+2	6
8	Port FC	3	+1	6
9	BG Pathum United	4	0	5
10	Chiangrai United	3	0	4
11	Pattani	3	−2	4
12	Sisaket United	3	−2	3
13	Sukhothai FC	4	−8	3
14	Rasi Salai United	4	−4	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	−4	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	−3	0