Sisaket United v BG Pathum United prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Sisaket United 1–1 BG Pathum United BG PATHUM UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said BG Pathum United win~~41%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.775

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BG Pathum United win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: BG Pathum United 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 31–28–41
1′KICK-OFF Sisaket United v BG Pathum United
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was BG Pathum United win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Sisaket United 0–1 BG Pathum United
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' BG Pathum United · On: Ashley Mark Coffey · Off: Pasqual Verkamp
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' BG Pathum United · On: Fabio Kaufmann · Off: Chanon Tamma
46′SECOND HALF Sisaket United 0–1 BG Pathum United
48′We said BG Pathum United at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 6–19–74
48′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 6–19–74
48′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Sisaket United 0–1 BG Pathum United
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' BG Pathum United win: 41% at kick-off, 74% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+3' BG Pathum United win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 19%)
49′45′: Joao Magno on the scoresheet for BG Pathum United, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–19–75
50′We said BG Pathum United at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' BG Pathum United · On: Elias Dolah · Off: Patrik Gustavsson
64′We said BG Pathum United at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' BG Pathum United win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' BG Pathum United · On: Anthony Belmonte · Off: Lucas Andersen
74′We said BG Pathum United at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Patrick Valverde Peral Lopez · Sisaket United
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sisaket United · On: Deyvison Fernandes de Oliveira · Off: Narongrit Kamnet
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sisaket United · On: Sittichok Kannoo · Off: Patrick Valverde Peral Lopez
81′We said BG Pathum United at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' BG Pathum United win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Elias Dolah · BG Pathum United
86′Sisaket United have had 13 attempts to 8 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 0–6–94
87′We said BG Pathum United at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' BG Pathum United · On: Surachat Sareepim · Off: Joao Magno
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Isaac Honey · Sisaket United
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Sisaket United · On: Hikaru Matsui · Off: Alex Mermoz Djatche Nandje
94′We said BG Pathum United at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 1–97–2
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Sisaket United 1–1 BG Pathum United
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' BG Pathum United win: 41% at kick-off, 2% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was BG Pathum United win 2%)
96′Sisaket United have had 17 attempts to 8 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 1–97–2
97′Sisaket United level it on 90′ through Kittipong Wongma. 1–1. 1–1 · 1–97–2
FTFULL TIME Sisaket United 1–1 BG Pathum United
FTSisaket United 1–1 BG Pathum United · BG Pathum United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BG Pathum United are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sisaket United 31%, draw 28%, BG Pathum United 41%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Sisaket United v BG Pathum UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sisaket United win31%

Draw28%

BG Pathum United win41%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueSri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium

Line-ups

Sisaket United

4-4-2

BG Pathum United

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sisaket United

BG Pathum United

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 15 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Sisaket United	4	−1	6
11	BG Pathum United	4	0	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sisaket United

4-4-2

77 Steven van Dijk

3 Borech

5 Pakornkiat Kaena

35 I. Honny

45 Chutikom Klinchampasri

23 N. Kamnet

19 K. Wongma

37 Suphaphon Sutthisak

7 Alex Mermoz Djatche Nandje

20 Patrick

9 Jefesson Vieira Eufrazio

Coach · S. Chuayboonchum

Substitutes

2 · D. Darbellay

10 · Deyvison

22 · P. Hanrattana

27 · Phiyawat Intarapim

99 · S. Kannoo

8 · Hikaru Matsui

88 · Sakkranvit Nimma

92 · T. Paibulkijcharoen

11 · Phattharapong Phengchaem

6 · Anderson Carneiro

67 · Arthit Bua-ngam

55 · Grittidech Nuntawong

BG Pathum United

4-3-3

28 S. Anuin

48 W. Choolthong

5 K. Kaman

50 E. Osmanović

2 C. Tamma

10 Lucas Andersen

6 S. Yooyen

4 L. James

11 P. Gustavsson

45 João Magno

21 P. Verkamp

Coach · Vladimir Vujović

Substitutes

26 · A. Belmonte

19 · A. Coffey

22 · Matheus Costa

17 · E. Dolah

49 · N. Ineachaeoen

37 · F. Kaufmann

24 · S. Pongsuwan

8 · A. Pumwisat

9 · S. Sareepim

39 · T. Siripala

25 · P. Tanthatemee

13 · I. Waewdee

Our number · bg pathum united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market43%

Us41%

~~Market~~43%

We make BG Pathum United a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sisaket United v BG Pathum United~~1.18 – 1.40

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D0 L2 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 5~~9 v 11

~~The market · BG Pathum United win~~43% · ours 41%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BG Pathum United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sisaket United win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	28%	31%	−3
BG Pathum United win	41%	43%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	48%	45%	+3
Both teams to score	52%	51%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	70%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	26%	0
Sisaket United or draw	59%	57%	+2
Sisaket United clean sheet	25%	–	–
BG Pathum United clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.0 9.4 7.4 3.5 1 7.9 13.4 8.4 4.0 2 5.4 7.2 5.0 2.3 3 2.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sisaket United down, BG Pathum United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,236 Thai League 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Sisaket United at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 2). BG Pathum United away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Sisaket United, 1.40 for BG Pathum United. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 11:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 4 Sept

SISAKET UNITED

LLWW1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1

BG PATHUM UNITED

DWLD0–0 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prachuap	5	+5	12
2	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
3	Buriram United	4	+4	10
4	Bangkok United	4	+4	9
5	Port FC	4	+2	9
6	Rayong FC	5	+1	8
7	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
8	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
9	Sisaket United	4	−1	6
10	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
11	BG Pathum United	4	0	5
12	Chiangrai United	4	−1	4
13	Pattani	4	−3	4
14	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
15	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1
16	Chonburi FC	5	−5	0