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Rayong FC v Uthai Thani

Rayong FC
1–1Full time
Uthai Thani

Thai League 1 · SAT 17 OCT · Rayong Province Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Rayong FC 1–1 Uthai Thani RAYONG FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Rayong FC win46%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.850
The market’s Brier score0.779

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rayong FC win at 46%.
  2. 0′KICK-OFF Rayong FC v Uthai Thani
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Rayong FC 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
  4. 6′We said Rayong FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–21–55
  5. 6′A goal for Uthai Thani on 6′. 0–0 · 45–26–29
  6. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Rayong FC 0–1 Uthai Thani
  7. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Rayong FC win: 46% at kick-off, 24% now
  8. 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Uthai Thani win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Rayong FC win 24%)
  9. 6′GOAL DISALLOWED · 6' Uthai Thani
  10. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Rayong FC win: 46% at kick-off, 45% now
  11. 6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' Rayong FC win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Uthai Thani win 29%)
  12. 13′We said Rayong FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–17–12
  13. 13′Rayong FC find the net on 13′. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
  14. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Rayong FC 1–0 Uthai Thani
  15. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Rayong FC win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
  16. 15′Rayong FC ahead on 14′ through João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–17–12
  17. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 72–18–10
  18. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Jeong Tae-Wook · Uthai Thani
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Rayong FC 1–0 Uthai Thani
  20. 48′HALF-TIME Rayong FC 1–0 Uthai Thani
  21. 49′We said Rayong FC at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
  22. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Rayong FC win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
  23. 55′We said Rayong FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–42–24
  24. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Rayong FC 1–1 Uthai Thani
  25. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Rayong FC win: 46% at kick-off, 34% now
  26. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Rayong FC win 34%)
  27. 56′12 shots for Rayong FC, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 33–43–24
  28. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Rayong FC win: 46% at kick-off, 33% now
  29. 57′An own goal by Rayong FC's Antonio Abreu Lara on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–44–24
  30. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Wattana Playnum · Uthai Thani
  31. 65′We said Rayong FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–51–21
  32. 65′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Mayron Marques Barboza da Rocha · Rayong FC
  33. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Rayong FC · On: Yeo Hong-Gyu · Off: Renan Gorne
  34. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Uthai Thani · On: Possawee Muanmart · Off: Wattana Playnum
  35. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Uthai Thani · On: William Gabriel Weidersjö · Off: Trent Buhagiar
  36. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Rayong FC win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
  37. 77′We said Rayong FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–67–14
  38. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Charalampos Charalampous · Uthai Thani
  39. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Rayong FC win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  40. 80′16 shots for Rayong FC, 7 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 15–73–12
  41. 81′We said Rayong FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
  42. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rayong FC · On: Matee Sarakum · Off: Supawit Romphopak
  43. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rayong FC · On: Thanaset Sujarit · Off: Natcha Promsomboon
  44. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rayong FC · On: Patipanchai Phothep · Off: Cristian·Magerusan
  45. 85′We said Rayong FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
  46. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Uthai Thani · On: Itsuki Enomoto · Off: Willian Lira Sousa Corrected
  47. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Uthai Thani · On: Santipap Yaemsaen · Off: Benjamin Davis
  48. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Rayong FC win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  49. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Uthai Thani · On: Siroch Chatthong · Off: Kelvin
  50. 92′We said Rayong FC at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–3
  51. 95′1–1 at the end. Our 46% on Rayong FC misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  52. FTFULL TIME Rayong FC 1–1 Uthai Thani
  53. FTRayong FC 1–1 Uthai Thani · Rayong FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rayong FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rayong FC 46%, draw 25%, Uthai Thani 29%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Rayong FC v Uthai ThaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rayong FC win46%
Draw25%
Uthai Thani win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueRayong Province Stadium

Line-ups

Rayong FC

4-3-3

Uthai Thani

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rayong FC

Uthai Thani

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 10 Oct · Thai League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Uthai Thani4+59
7Rayong FC4+17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Rayong FC

4-3-3

30 W. Ganthong

19 S. Romphopak

94 Antonio Abreu Lara

37 Mayron Marques

3 Thanawat Pimyotha

8 Natcha Promsomboon

6 João Afonso

17 Bruno Leite

26 Renan Gorne

99 C. Măgerușan

98 João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni

Coach · A. Chalitaporn

Substitutes

4 · H. Katano

2 · Noppol Kerdkaew

18 · P. Ngernprasert

5 · P. Phatthaphon

79 · P. Phothep

22 · C. Pombubpha

7 · M. Sarakum

36 · Worawut Srisupha

15 · Thanaset Sujarit

80 · W. Withunat

77 · Yeo Hong-Gyu

10 · João Vitor Coutinho Maia

Uthai Thani

4-3-3

97 Caíque

5 S. Peenagatapho

13 Jeong Tae-Wook

19 W. Playnum

3 C. Charalampous

25 R. Maikami

10 B. Davis

77 Robertinho

22 Kelvin

99 Willian Lira Sousa

7 T. Buhagiar

Coach · Alexandre Gama

Substitutes

6 · Pablo Dias De Souza Almeida

35 · S. Chatthong

29 · A. Boodjinda

62 · A. Doloh

9 · I. Enomoto

92 · A. Meethoum

4 · Possawee Muanmart

20 · N. Naksawat

21 · T. Rattanapoom

1 · C. Wangthaphan

8 · William Gabriel Weidersjö

24 · S. Yaemsaen

Our number · rayong fc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
46% The market35%
Us46%
Market35%

We make Rayong FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rayong FC v Uthai Thani1.73 – 1.34
Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 SeptW2 D1 L1 · W3 D0 L1
Table places · points 7 v 97 v 2
The market · Rayong FC win35% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0617 OCT 12:25
Our probability · Rayong FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rayong FC win46%35%+11
Draw25%28%−3
Uthai Thani win29%38%−9
Over 2.5 goals59%55%+4
Both teams to score61%60%+1
Over 1.5 goals82%77%+5
Over 3.5 goals37%36%+1
Rayong FC or draw71%62%+9
Rayong FC clean sheet27%––
Uthai Thani clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 5.8 5.4 4.2 1 7.2 11.6 7.1 3.2 2 6.9 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.0 5.3 3.5 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rayong FC down, Uthai Thani across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting3.17
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored4 of 6
Last meetingsUTH 4–1 RAY · RAY 2–1 UTH · RAY 2–3 UTH · UTH 3–1 RAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

RAYONG FC

WWDL1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–3

UTHAI THANI

WLWW4–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Buriram United4+410
2Uthai Thani4+59
3Bangkok United4+49
4Prachuap4+49
5Port FC4+29
6Ratchaburi4+67
7Rayong FC4+17
8Ayutthaya FC5−17
9Sisaket United4−16
10BG Pathum United405
11Chiangrai United4−14
12Pattani4−34
13Lamphun Warrior5−44
14Sukhothai FC4−83
15Rasi Salai United4−41
16Chonburi FC4−40

The competition's standings before kick-off.