Rayong FC v Lamphun Warrior prediction · Thai League 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Rayong FCDrawLamphun Warrior

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Rayong FC 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rayong FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rayong FC 48%, draw 26%, Lamphun Warrior 26%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Rayong FC v Lamphun WarriorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Rayong FC win48%

Draw26%

Lamphun Warrior win26%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

VenueRayong Provincial Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rayong FC

Lamphun Warrior

6Days since last match10

Last match: 24 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 20 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Rayong FC	6	−2	8
12	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rayong fc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Rayong FC a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rayong FC v Lamphun Warrior~~1.71 – 1.20

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 4~~9 v 12

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rayong FC win

Published at 49%, 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rayong FC win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Lamphun Warrior win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Rayong FC or draw	74%	–	–
Rayong FC clean sheet	30%	–	–
Lamphun Warrior clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.7 5.6 4.0 1 8.4 12.0 6.6 2.7 2 7.9 9.3 5.6 2.3 3 4.5 5.3 3.2 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rayong FC down, Lamphun Warrior across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,244 Thai League 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rayong FC at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Lamphun Warrior away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Rayong FC, 1.20 for Lamphun Warrior. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~RAY 1–1 LAM · LAM 2–2 RAY · RAY 2–3 LAM · LAM 4–1 RAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

RAYONG FC

WWDLDL1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–4

LAMPHUN WARRIOR

LLDLW1–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Port FC	6	+7	15
2	Buriram United	6	+4	13
3	Prachuap	5	+5	12
4	Ratchaburi	6	+6	10
5	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
6	Sisaket United	6	0	10
7	BG Pathum United	6	+2	9
8	Bangkok United	5	+2	9
9	Rayong FC	6	−2	8
10	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
11	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
12	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
13	Chiangrai United	6	−4	4
14	Pattani	5	−4	4
15	Chonburi FC	6	−4	3
16	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1