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Ratchaburi v Sukhothai FC

Ratchaburi

6–0Full time

Sukhothai FC

Thai League 1 · FRI 9 OCT · Dragon Solar Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 14:32

Ratchaburi 6–0 Sukhothai FC RATCHABURI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ratchaburi win~~68%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.156

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.181

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ratchaburi win68%

Draw20%

Sukhothai FC win12%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 12:00

Venue · Dragon Solar Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ratchaburi

4-2-3-1

99 K. Pathomakkakul

27 J. Curran

15 A. Promrak

3 T. Aggoun

31 S. van Wermeskerken

16 R. Mesa

8 T. Suengchitthawon

6 Tana

10 J. Viera

21 E. Panya

32 R. Zulj

Coach · Worrawoot Srimaka

Substitutes

97 · U. Wongmeema

5 · D. Ting

20 · S. Nonthasila

29 · K. Chiamudom

33 · P. Promjan

37 · K. Srisuwan

28 · T. Limwannasthian

19 · T. Yoryoei

42 · S. Panthong

22 · P. Sangkasopha

9 · Bruno Mendes

92 · N. Rakotoharimalala

Sukhothai FC

4-4-2

99 K. Saensuk

27 T. Thumporn

15 S. Promsupa

93 Claudio

3 W. Sawatlakhorn

7 A. Moreira Gouvea

17 T. Mhuaddarak

10 Barreto

94 Jefferson

11 Gustavo Apis

9 Nathan Palafoz

Coach · Rattee Ueathanaphaisarn

Substitutes

25 · N. Naengwongsa

2 · J. Thongsaengphrao

4 · S. Kanlayanabandit

5 · Yan Victor

70 · Luan

6 · S. Logarwit

8 · R. Aranpiroj

28 · Rhuan Silveira

80 · Murilo

14 · A. Jantrapho

20 · N. Jandke

19 · P. Khamphaeng

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ratchaburi

4-2-3-1

99 K. Pathomakkakul

27 J. Curran

15 A. Promrak

3 T. Aggoun

31 S. van Wermeskerken

16 R. Mesa

8 T. Suengchitthawon

6 Tana

10 J. Viera

21 E. Panya

32 R. Zulj

Coach · Worrawoot Srimaka

Substitutes

97 · U. Wongmeema

5 · D. Ting

20 · S. Nonthasila

29 · K. Chiamudom

33 · P. Promjan

37 · K. Srisuwan

28 · T. Limwannasthian

19 · T. Yoryoei

42 · S. Panthong

22 · P. Sangkasopha

9 · Bruno Mendes

92 · N. Rakotoharimalala

Sukhothai FC

4-4-2

99 K. Saensuk

27 T. Thumporn

15 S. Promsupa

93 Claudio

3 W. Sawatlakhorn

7 A. Moreira Gouvea

17 T. Mhuaddarak

10 Barreto

94 Jefferson

11 Gustavo Apis

9 Nathan Palafoz

Coach · Rattee Ueathanaphaisarn

Substitutes

25 · N. Naengwongsa

2 · J. Thongsaengphrao

4 · S. Kanlayanabandit

5 · Yan Victor

70 · Luan

6 · S. Logarwit

8 · R. Aranpiroj

28 · Rhuan Silveira

80 · Murilo

14 · A. Jantrapho

20 · N. Jandke

19 · P. Khamphaeng

Our number · ratchaburi winPublished 9 Oct 12:02

68% The market65%

Us68%

~~Market~~65%

We make Ratchaburi a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ratchaburi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ratchaburi win	68%	65%	+3
Draw	20%	20%	0
Sukhothai FC win	12%	15%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	51%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	35%	37%	−2
Ratchaburi or draw	88%	85%	+3
Ratchaburi clean sheet	45%	–	–
Sukhothai FC clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.9%

0123450 6.0 3.3 1 10.3 9.5 3.5 2 11.9 9.4 3.8 3 8.7 6.8 2.8 4 4.9 3.8 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Ratchaburi down, Sukhothai FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,224 Thai League 1 matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.38 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ratchaburi at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sukhothai FC away: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Ratchaburi, 0.80 for Sukhothai FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 11:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SUK 1–2 RAT · RAT 1–0 SUK · SUK 2–1 RAT · RAT 2–2 SUK

Form · last six in Thai League 1

RATCHABURI

LWWLWD0–1 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

SUKHOTHAI FC

LLWLLW1–2 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buriram United	3	+3	7
2	Rayong FC	3	+2	7
3	Uthai Thani	3	+3	6
4	Prachuap	3	+3	6
5	Bangkok United	3	+2	6
6	Port FC	3	+1	6
7	Ayutthaya FC	3	+1	6
8	BG Pathum United	3	0	4
9	Ratchaburi	3	0	4
10	Chiangrai United	3	0	4
11	Pattani	3	−2	4
12	Sukhothai FC	3	−2	3
13	Sisaket United	3	−2	3
14	Rasi Salai United	3	−2	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	−4	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	−3	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match updates

Timeline

Pre-match prediction

Match information

The game so far

Match statistics

Players on the pitch

Line-ups

Ratchaburi

Sukhothai FC

Match statistics

Line-ups

Ratchaburi

Sukhothai FC

Head to head

Form · last six in Thai League 1

The table