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Ratchaburi v Chonburi FC

Ratchaburi

1–2Full time

Chonburi FC

Thai League 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Dragon Solar Park

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Ratchaburi 1–2 Chonburi FC RATCHABURI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ratchaburi win~~66%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.224

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.088

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ratchaburi win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ratchaburi 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 66–21–14
1′KICK-OFF Ratchaburi v Chonburi FC
14′We said Ratchaburi at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 0–1 · 38–25–37
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Ratchaburi 0–1 Chonburi FC
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Ratchaburi win: 66% at kick-off, 38% now
15′GOAL DISALLOWED · 15' Chonburi FC
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Ratchaburi win: 66% at kick-off, 62% now
22′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Tarek aggoun · Ratchaburi
23′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Tarek aggoun · Ratchaburi
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Ratchaburi win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
38′We said Ratchaburi at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
38′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 85–12–3
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Ratchaburi 1–0 Chonburi FC
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Ratchaburi win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
38′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Stenio Marcos da Fonseca Salazar · Chonburi FC
40′34′: Sai Van Wermeskerken on the scoresheet for Ratchaburi, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
41′38′: Sai Van Wermeskerken on the scoresheet for Ratchaburi, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
41′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Sai Van Wermeskerken · Ratchaburi
45′SECOND HALF Ratchaburi 1–0 Chonburi FC
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chonburi FC · On: Chayathorn Tapsuvanavon · Off: Korawich Tasa
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chonburi FC · On: Santipharp Channgom · Off: Peerapat Notchaiya
50′HALF-TIME Ratchaburi 1–0 Chonburi FC
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Ratchaburi win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
61′We said Ratchaburi at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 1–1 · 41–45–14
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Ratchaburi 1–1 Chonburi FC
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Ratchaburi win: 66% at kick-off, 41% now
62′Chonburi FC level it on 61′ through Stenio Marcos da Fonseca Salazar. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–46–13
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Ratchaburi win 86%)
63′10 shots for Ratchaburi, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 40–47–13
64′Chonburi FC level it on 63′ through Stenio Marcos da Fonseca Salazar. 1–1. 1–1 · 39–48–13
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Chonburi FC · On: Jaturapat Sattham · Off: Yotsakon Burapha
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ratchaburi · On: Njiva Rakotoharimalala · Off: Roque Mesa
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Ratchaburi win: 66% at kick-off, 36% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ratchaburi · On: Thossawat Limwannasthian · Off: Chotipat Poomkaew
69′We said Ratchaburi at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–54–12
72′12 shots for Ratchaburi, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 31–58–11
74′We said Ratchaburi at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–61–10
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Chonburi FC · On: Rachata Moraksa · Off: Saharat Sontisawat
75′We said Ratchaburi at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–22–73
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ratchaburi 1–2 Chonburi FC
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Ratchaburi win: 66% at kick-off, 5% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Chonburi FC win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 61%)
76′We said Ratchaburi at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–22–74
77′Kike Linares scores for Chonburi FC on 76′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–21–76
77′Kike Linares scores for Chonburi FC on 75′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–21–76
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ratchaburi · On: Phongsakon Sangkasopha · Off: Pedro Tanausú Domínguez Placeres
84′Ratchaburi have had 17 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Wellington Priori · Chonburi FC
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Ratchaburi · On: Bruno Mendes · Off: Ekanit Panya
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Chonburi FC · On: Chaowat Veerachat · Off: Guilherme Ferreira Pinto
91′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Kevin Ray Hansen · Chonburi FC
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Chaowat Veerachat · Chonburi FC
95′1–2 at the end. Our 66% on Ratchaburi misses, and the record keeps it. 1–2 · 0–0–100
106′20 shots for Ratchaburi, 7 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Ratchaburi 1–2 Chonburi FC
FTRatchaburi 1–2 Chonburi FC · Ratchaburi win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ratchaburi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ratchaburi 66%, draw 21%, Chonburi FC 14%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Ratchaburi v Chonburi FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ratchaburi win66%

Draw21%

Chonburi FC win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueDragon Solar Park

Line-ups

Ratchaburi

4-2-3-1

Chonburi FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ratchaburi

Chonburi FC

3Days since last match4

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

Last match: 20 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ratchaburi	5	+7	10
16	Chonburi FC	5	−5	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ratchaburi

4-2-3-1

99 K. Phatomakkakul

27 J. Curran

3 Tarek Aggoun

5 D. Ting

31 S. van Wermeskerken

16 Roque Mesa

8 T. Suengchitthawon

88 C. Poomkaew

6 Tana

21 E. Panya

32 R. Žulj

Coach · W. Srimaka

Substitutes

20 · Sanchai Nontasila

42 · S. Panthong

9 · Bruno Mendes

19 · Teeraphol Yoryoei

97 · U. Wongmeema

37 · K. Srisuwan

22 · P. Sangkasopha

92 · Njiva Rakotoharimalala

15 · A. Promrak

33 · P. Promjan

23 · K. Deeromram

28 · T. Limwanasathian

Chonburi FC

4-2-3-1

1 K. Mendoza

19 T. Do

2 K. Linares

47 Jorge Fellipe

3 Peerapat Notchaiya

15 S. Sontisawat

6 Wellington Priori

10 Negueba

8 Y. Burapha

11 K. Tasa

18 Stênio Júnior

Coach · W. Laohakul

Substitutes

30 · Bruno Ritter

32 · R. Moraksa

46 · N. Kadtoon

23 · S. Channgom

31 · S. Paso

36 · J. Sattham

5 · N. Sayriya

80 · C. Tapsuvanavon

14 · Chaowat Veerachat

Our number · ratchaburi winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

66% The market60%

Us66%

~~Market~~60%

We make Ratchaburi a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ratchaburi v Chonburi FC~~2.20 – 0.89

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L1 · W0 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 10 v 0~~4 v 16

~~The market · Ratchaburi win~~60% · ours 66%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ratchaburi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ratchaburi win	66%	60%	+6
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Chonburi FC win	14%	18%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	58%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	78%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	37%	37%	0
Ratchaburi or draw	86%	82%	+4
Ratchaburi clean sheet	41%	–	–
Chonburi FC clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%

0123450 5.6 3.4 1 9.2 9.7 4.0 2 10.8 9.5 4.3 3 7.9 6.9 3.1 4 4.4 3.9 5 2.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Ratchaburi down, Chonburi FC across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,240 Thai League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ratchaburi at home: 3.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Chonburi FC away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Ratchaburi, 0.89 for Chonburi FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RAT 1–0 CHO · CHO 0–1 RAT · CHO 0–1 RAT · RAT 1–2 CHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

RATCHABURI

LWDWW1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 2–1

CHONBURI FC

LLLLL0–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buriram United	5	+5	13
2	Prachuap	5	+5	12
3	Port FC	5	+4	12
4	Ratchaburi	5	+7	10
5	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
6	Bangkok United	5	+2	9
7	Rayong FC	5	+1	8
8	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
9	Sisaket United	5	−1	7
10	BG Pathum United	5	0	6
11	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
12	Chiangrai United	5	−2	4
13	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
14	Pattani	5	−4	4
15	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1
16	Chonburi FC	5	−5	0