Prachuap v Chiangrai United prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Prachuap 2–1 Chiangrai United PRACHUAP WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Prachuap win~~50%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.378

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.352

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Prachuap win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Prachuap 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
2′Little has changed for our model: Prachuap 50% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–27–22
2′KICK-OFF Prachuap v Chiangrai United
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Wanderson Papaterra Matos · Chiangrai United
36′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Sansern Limwatthana · Chiangrai United
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Prachuap · On: Saharat Kanyaroj · Off: Prasit Jantum Corrected
45′SECOND HALF Prachuap 0–0 Chiangrai United
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Prachuap · On: Tailson Pinto Gonçalves · Off: Rei Tachikawa Corrected
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Prachuap 0–1 Chiangrai United
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Prachuap 0–1 Chiangrai United · Gustavo Schutz
47′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Sansern Limwatthana · Chiangrai United
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Prachuap 1–1 Chiangrai United · Gustavo Schutz
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Prachuap 1–1 Chiangrai United · Bernardo Vilar
62′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Prachuap · On: Andros Townsend · Off: Phon-Ek Jensen Maneekorn Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Chiangrai United · On: Jorge Eduardo Silva Costa · Off: Sansern Limwatthana Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Chiangrai United · On: Marco Ballini · Off: Hélio Monteiro Batista Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Chiangrai United · On: Montree Promsawat · Off: Settasit Suvannaseat Corrected
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Prachuap 2–1 Chiangrai United · Bernardo Vilar
79′⚽ GOAL · 80' Prachuap 2–1 Chiangrai United · Édgar Méndez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Chiangrai United · On: Douglas De Souza Nascimento · Off: Robson Santos Do Carmo Junior Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Chiangrai United · On: Sanukran Thinjom · Off: Gustavo Schutz Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Prachuap · On: Jesper Nyholm · Off: Bernardo Vilar Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Andros Townsend · Prachuap
95′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Prachuap · On: Oussama Thiangkham · Off: Tailson Pinto Gonçalves Corrected
97′🟨 YELLOW · 97' Zé Ricardo · Chiangrai United
FTFULL TIME Prachuap 2–1 Chiangrai United
FTPrachuap 2–1 Chiangrai United · Prachuap win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Prachuap win50%

Draw29%

Chiangrai United win21%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenuePrachuap Khiri Khan Province Stadium

Line-ups

Prachuap

4-2-3-1

Chiangrai United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Prachuap

Chiangrai United

22Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Prachuap	3	+3	6
10	Chiangrai United	3	0	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Prachuap

4-2-3-1

39 W. Srathongjan

88 J. Phasukihan

5 A. Tirabassi

3 Bernardo Vilar

74 P. Maneekorn

23 K. Thawornsak

70 P. Jantum

62 Lucas Grossi

11 R. Tachikawa

10 Taua

17 E. Mendez

Coach · Sasom Pobprasert

Substitutes

1 · S. Rakyart

24 · W. Choosong

15 · J. Nyholm

2 · O. Thiangkham

34 · A. Thiangkham

8 · S. Kanyaroj

14 · A. Townsend

9 · Lee Jeong-Hyeop

41 · P. Praphanth

21 · Tailson

47 · C. Phimpsang

48 · J. Mamah

Chiangrai United

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Worawong

33 J. R. Pires Gomes

15 P. Suksakit

28 Helio

92 T. Inprakhon

9 H. Stewart

6 S. Suvannaseat

8 Wanderson Papaterra

11 Robinho

19 Schutz

80 S. Limwatthana

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · S. Klaithin

4 · P. Phanitchakun

23 · Victor Cardozo

3 · T. Srisai

5 · M. Ballini

17 · G. Verzura

10 · Dudu

7 · S. Thinjom

32 · M. Promsawat

21 · Douglas

Our number · prachuap winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

50% The market52%

Us50%

~~Market~~52%

We make Prachuap a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · prachuap win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Prachuap win	50%	52%	−2
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Chiangrai United win	21%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	41%	47%	−6
Both teams to score	45%	49%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	68%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	27%	−6
Prachuap or draw	79%	78%	0
Prachuap clean sheet	42%	–	–
Chiangrai United clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 11.1 7.4 3.7 1 13.1 13.2 5.3 2 10.3 8.8 3.8 3 5.1 4.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Prachuap down, Chiangrai United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Thai League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Prachuap at home: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Chiangrai United away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Prachuap, 0.87 for Chiangrai United. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:38. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PRA 3–2 CHI · CHI 2–1 PRA · PRA 2–0 CHI · CHI 1–1 PRA

Form · last six in Thai League 1

PRACHUAP

WWLLWW3–1 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0

CHIANGRAI UNITED

WDWWDL1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buriram United	4	+4	10
2	Uthai Thani	4	+5	9
3	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
4	Rayong FC	4	+1	7
5	Ayutthaya FC	4	+1	7
6	Prachuap	3	+3	6
7	Bangkok United	3	+2	6
8	Port FC	3	+1	6
9	BG Pathum United	4	0	5
10	Chiangrai United	3	0	4
11	Pattani	3	−2	4
12	Sisaket United	3	−2	3
13	Sukhothai FC	4	−8	3
14	Rasi Salai United	4	−4	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	−4	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	−3	0