Prachuap v Bangkok United prediction · Thai League 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PrachuapDrawBangkok United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Prachuap 36%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Prachuap just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Prachuap 36%, draw 29%, Bangkok United 34%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Prachuap v Bangkok UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Prachuap win36%

Draw29%

Bangkok United win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenuePrachuap Khiri Khan Province Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Prachuap

Bangkok United

3Days since last match4

Last match: 22 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Prachuap	5	+5	12
6	Bangkok United	5	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · prachuap winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make Prachuap a 36% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Prachuap v Bangkok United~~1.26 – 1.21

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D0 L1 · W3 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 9~~3 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Prachuap win	36%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Bangkok United win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Prachuap or draw	66%	–	–
Prachuap clean sheet	30%	–	–
Bangkok United clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 9.9 9.2 6.2 2.6 1 9.5 13.8 7.7 3.1 2 6.7 7.9 4.8 3 2.8 3.4 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Prachuap down, Bangkok United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,244 Thai League 1 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.8% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Prachuap at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bangkok United away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Prachuap, 1.21 for Bangkok United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PRA 0–0 BAN · BAN 4–1 PRA · PRA 2–4 BAN · BAN 2–1 PRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PRACHUAP

LWWWW0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

BANGKOK UNITED

WLWWL3–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Port FC	6	+7	15
2	Buriram United	5	+5	13
3	Prachuap	5	+5	12
4	Ratchaburi	5	+7	10
5	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
6	Bangkok United	5	+2	9
7	Rayong FC	6	−2	8
8	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
9	Sisaket United	5	−1	7
10	BG Pathum United	5	0	6
11	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
12	Chiangrai United	5	−2	4
13	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
14	Pattani	5	−4	4
15	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1
16	Chonburi FC	5	−5	0