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Model 1.2

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Port FC v Rayong FC

Port FC
4–1Full time
Rayong FC

Thai League 1 · SAT 24 OCT · PAT Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:53
Port FC 4–1 Rayong FC PORT FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Port FC win70%
The market said68%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.136
The market’s Brier score0.154

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Port FC win at 70%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Port FC was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Port FC v Rayong FC
  4. 6′We published Port FC at 70%. Our model now makes it 88%. 1–0 · 88–8–4
  5. 6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Port FC 1–0 Rayong FC
  6. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Port FC win: 70% at kick-off, 88% now
  7. 7′Port FC score on 6′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–8–4
  8. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Teerasak Poeiphimai · Port FC
  9. 13′🟨 YELLOW · 13' João Afonso · Rayong FC
  10. 18′We published Port FC at 70%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  11. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Port FC 2–0 Rayong FC
  12. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Port FC win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
  13. 19′Port FC ahead on 18′ through Teerasak Poeiphimai. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
  14. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Port FC 3–0 Rayong FC
  15. 23′Bruno Moreira Soares scores for Port FC on 22′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
  16. 44′We published Port FC at 70%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Port FC win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
  18. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 43' Port FC · On: Essam Al-Subhi · Off: Teerasak Poeiphimai
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Port FC 3–0 Rayong FC
  20. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rayong FC · On: Renan Gorne · Off: João Afonso
  21. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rayong FC · On: Wichaya Ganthong · Off: Worawut Srisupha
  22. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rayong FC · On: João Vitor Coutinho Maia · Off: Yeo Hong-Gyu
  23. 49′HALF-TIME Port FC 3–0 Rayong FC
  24. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Worachit Kanitsribumphen · Port FC
  25. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Rayong FC · On: Chananan Pombuppha · Off: João Vitor Coutinho Maia
  26. 61′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  27. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Port FC 3–1 Rayong FC
  28. 62′61′: João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni on the scoresheet for Rayong FC, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
  29. 64′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  30. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Port FC 4–1 Rayong FC
  31. 65′Port FC ahead on 65′ through Peeradol Chamrasamee. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  32. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Mayron Marques Barboza da Rocha · Rayong FC
  33. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Port FC · On: Noboru Shimura · Off: Seksan Ratree
  34. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Port FC · On: Lucas Tocantins · Off: Jakkaphan Kaewprom
  35. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Rayong FC · On: Hiromichi Katano · Off: Mayron Marques Barboza da Rocha
  36. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Port FC · On: Jude Soonsup-Bell · Off: Bruno Moreira Soares
  37. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Port FC · On: Sittha Boonlha · Off: Worachit Kanitsribumphen
  38. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Chaiyaphon Otton · Port FC
  39. 94′Full time, 4–1. We called Port FC at 70% — that one lands. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  40. FTFULL TIME Port FC 4–1 Rayong FC
  41. FTPort FC 4–1 Rayong FC · Port FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Port FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Port FC 70%, draw 18%, Rayong FC 12%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Port FC v Rayong FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Port FC win70%
Draw18%
Rayong FC win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenuePAT Stadium

Line-ups

Port FC

4-2-3-1

Rayong FC

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Port FC

Rayong FC

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Port FC5+412
7Rayong FC5+18

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Port FC

4-2-3-1

93 M. Falkesgaard

4 S. Bureerat

36 P. Akkratum

15 M. Bihr

25 C. Otton

5 P. Chamrasamee

24 J. Kaewprom

17 S. Ratree

22 W. Kanitsribumphen

11 Bruno

14 T. Poeiphimai

Coach · Bozidar Bandovic

Substitutes

47 · S. Boonlha

7 · Issam Al Sabhi

27 · Lucas Tocantins

20 · Marcel Scalese

8 · T. Kesarat

10 · B. Phala

34 · N. Selanon

33 · N. Shimura

18 · Jude Jacob Soonsup-Bell

28 · E. Sviatchenko

21 · S. Tiatrakul

1 · S. Yos

Rayong FC

4-3-3

36 Worawut Srisupha

4 H. Katano

94 Antonio Abreu Lara

15 Thanaset Sujarit

5 P. Phatthaphon

8 Natcha Promsomboon

6 João Afonso

17 Bruno Leite

99 C. Măgerușan

77 Yeo Hong-Gyu

98 João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni

Coach · A. Chalitaporn

Substitutes

30 · W. Ganthong

26 · Renan Gorne

2 · Noppol Kerdkaew

37 · Mayron Marques

18 · P. Ngernprasert

79 · P. Phothep

3 · Thanawat Pimyotha

22 · C. Pombubpha

19 · S. Romphopak

7 · M. Sarakum

80 · W. Withunat

10 · João Vitor Coutinho Maia

Our number · port fc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
70% The market68%
Us70%
Market68%

We make Port FC a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Port FC v Rayong FC2.52 – 0.96
Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 SeptW4 D0 L1 · W2 D2 L1
Table places · points 12 v 83 v 7
The market · Port FC win68% · ours 70%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 11:54
Our probability · Port FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 70% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Port FC win70%68%+2
Draw18%19%−1
Rayong FC win12%13%−1
Over 2.5 goals67%63%+4
Both teams to score57%54%+3
Over 1.5 goals86%82%+4
Over 3.5 goals46%43%+3
Port FC or draw88%87%+1
Port FC clean sheet39%––
Rayong FC clean sheet8%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%
0123450 4.0 2.4 1 7.2 8.2 3.6 2 9.7 9.2 4.4 3 8.1 7.6 3.7 4 5.1 4.8 2.3 5 2.7 2.5
under 2% 5% 12%+Port FC down, Rayong FC across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting4.50
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored4 of 4
Last meetingsRAY 5–2 POR · POR 1–1 RAY · POR 4–1 RAY · RAY 1–3 POR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

PORT FC

WWLWW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–2 · 2–0

RAYONG FC

WWDLD1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Buriram United5+513
2Prachuap5+512
3Port FC5+412
4Ratchaburi5+710
5Uthai Thani5+510
6Bangkok United5+29
7Rayong FC5+18
8Ayutthaya FC5−17
9Sisaket United5−17
10BG Pathum United506
11Sukhothai FC5−46
12Chiangrai United5−24
13Lamphun Warrior5−44
14Pattani5−44
15Rasi Salai United5−81
16Chonburi FC5−50

The competition's standings before kick-off.