Port FC v Pattani prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Port FC 3–2 Pattani PORT FC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Port FC win~~71%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.126

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.100

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Port FC win at 71%.
1′KICK-OFF Port FC v Pattani
2′Little has changed for our model: Port FC 71% before kick-off, 73% now. 0–0 · 73–17–11
3′Little has changed for our model: Port FC 71% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–17–11
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Port FC 1–0 Pattani
5′⚽ GOAL · 6' Port FC 1–0 Pattani
12′SUBSTITUTION · 12' Port FC · On: Bruno Moreira Soares · Off: Kaká Mendes Corrected
22′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Nattanan Biesamrit · Pattani
22′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Port FC · On: Manuel Bihr · Off: Matheus Guilherme Lins de Almeida Corrected
23′6′ and it is 1–0: Peeradol Chamrasamee on the scoresheet for Port FC. 1–0 · 88–9–3
24′6′ and it is 1–0: Peeradol Chamrasamee on the scoresheet for Port FC. 1–0 · 88–9–3
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Port FC win: 71% at kick-off, 88% now
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Port FC win: 71% at kick-off, 72% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Noboru Shimura · Port FC
27′🟥 RED CARD · 27' Port FC
28′🟥 RED CARD · 28' Noboru Shimura · Port FC
29′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Nitipong Selanon · Port FC
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Jean-Pierre Da Sylva · Pattani
45′Port FC are down to ten from 28′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 88–10–2
45′SECOND HALF Port FC 1–0 Pattani
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Chaiyawat Buran · Pattani
46′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Chaiyawat Buran · Pattani
49′Port FC are down to ten from 28′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 88–10–2
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Port FC win: 71% at kick-off, 88% now
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Port FC 1–1 Pattani · Peeradol Chamrasamee
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Port FC 1–1 Pattani · Jean-Pierre Da Sylva
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Port FC · On: Teerasak Poeiphimai · Off: Jude Soonsup-Bell Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Port FC · On: Rui Costa · Off: Worachit Kanitsribumphen Corrected
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Port FC · On: Jakkaphan Kaewprom · Off: Essam Al-Subhi Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Pattani · On: Nattawut Salae · Off: Marlon Henrique Brandão da Silva Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Port FC 1–2 Pattani · Jean-Pierre Da Sylva
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Port FC 1–2 Pattani · Igor Neves
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Port FC 2–2 Pattani · Igor Neves
78′⚽ GOAL · 79' Port FC 2–2 Pattani · Teerasak Poeiphimai
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Port FC 3–2 Pattani · Teerasak Poeiphimai
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Port FC 3–2 Pattani · Bruno Moreira Soares
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Pattani · On: Clayton · Off: Jean-Pierre Da Sylva Corrected
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Pattani · On: Carlos de Almeida Parede Neto · Off: Felipe Mundim Nunes Corrected
FTFULL TIME Port FC 3–2 Pattani
FTPort FC 3–2 Pattani · Port FC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Port FC win71%

Draw18%

Pattani win10%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenuePAT Stadium

Line-ups

Port FC

4-4-2

Pattani

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Port FC

Pattani

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Port FC	3	+1	6
11	Pattani	3	−2	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Port FC

4-4-2

93 M. Falkesgaard

36 P. Akkratum

34 N. Selanon

13 M. Lins

25 C. Otton

22 W. Kanitsribampen

33 N. Shimura

5 P. Chamratsamee

12 Kaka Mendes

18 J. Soonsup-Bell

7 I. Al Sabhi

Coach · Sarawut Treephan

Substitutes

1 · S. Yos

28 · E. Sviatchenko

77 · H. Boutsingkham

15 · M. Bihr

4 · S. Bureerat

24 · J. Kaewprom

8 · T. Kesarat

17 · S. Ratree

14 · T. Poeiphimai

10 · B. Phala

19 · R. Costa

11 · Bruno

Pattani

4-2-3-1

13 D. Damyanov

2 E. Samre

3 Rodolfo Filemon

26 Marlon Silva

20 Maicon Douglas

15 N. Biesamrit

64 T. Prueangna

9 I. Neves

10 Felipe Nunes

24 C. Buran

21 J. Da Sylva

Coach · Harnnarong Chunhakunakorn

Substitutes

1 · N. Nideha

99 · M. Mamah

5 · N. Salae

22 · B. Thepwong

4 · N. Phonyiam

19 · I. Khampliw

40 · K. Kaewnongdang

30 · A. Lassamano

8 · Clayton

96 · Carlos Neto

11 · J. Phokhi

90 · I. Hayiyusoh

Our number · port fc winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

71% The market74%

Us71%

~~Market~~74%

We make Port FC a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · port fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 78% to 74% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Port FC win	71%	74%	−3
Draw	18%	16%	+3
Pattani win	10%	10%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	62%	65%	−4
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	40%	45%	−5
Port FC or draw	90%	90%	−1
Port FC clean sheet	45%	–	–
Pattani clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.5%

0123450 5.1 2.7 1 9.2 8.6 3.2 2 11.5 9.0 3.7 3 9.1 7.1 2.9 4 5.6 4.3 5 2.9 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Port FC down, Pattani across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Thai League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Port FC at home: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Pattani away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

2.41 goals for Port FC, 0.80 for Pattani. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Thai League 1

PORT FC

WWWWWL1–0 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

PATTANI

DWL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buriram United	4	+4	10
2	Uthai Thani	4	+5	9
3	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
4	Rayong FC	4	+1	7
5	Ayutthaya FC	4	+1	7
6	Prachuap	3	+3	6
7	Bangkok United	3	+2	6
8	Port FC	3	+1	6
9	BG Pathum United	4	0	5
10	Chiangrai United	3	0	4
11	Pattani	3	−2	4
12	Sisaket United	3	−2	3
13	Sukhothai FC	4	−8	3
14	Rasi Salai United	4	−4	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	−4	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	−3	0