Pattani v Buriram United prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Pattani 0–1 Buriram United BURIRAM UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Buriram United win~~62%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.221

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.121

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Buriram United win at 62%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Buriram United 62% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 17–21–61
1′KICK-OFF Pattani v Buriram United
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Buriram United win: 62% at kick-off, 52% now
38′We said Buriram United at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 5–13–82
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Pattani 0–1 Buriram United
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Buriram United win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
39′A goal for Buriram United on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–13–82
45′SECOND HALF Pattani 0–1 Buriram United
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Pattani · On: Maicon Douglas · Off: Nattawut Salae
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Pattani · On: Nattanan Biesamrit · Off: Clayton
47′HALF-TIME Pattani 0–1 Buriram United
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Pattani · On: Felipe Mundim Nunes · Off: Jean-Pierre Da Sylva
65′We said Buriram United at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Buriram United · On: Jakkaphan Praisuwan · Off: Theerathon Bunmathan
78′We said Buriram United at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Pattani · On: Carlos de Almeida Parede Neto · Off: Ignacio de Loyola Abeledo Rute
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Buriram United win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Pattani · On: Ekkachai Samre · Off: Boontawee Theppawong
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Sasalak Haiprakhon · Buriram United
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Buriram United · On: Shinnaphat Leeaoh · Off: Kingsley Schindler Corrected
86′We said Buriram United at 62% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
87′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Sebas Moyano · Buriram United
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Igor Neves · Pattani
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Rodolfo · Pattani
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Paulinho · Buriram United
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Buriram United · On: Stefan Schimmer · Off: Sebas Moyano
FTFULL TIME Pattani 0–1 Buriram United
FTPattani 0–1 Buriram United · Buriram United win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Buriram United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pattani 17%, draw 21%, Buriram United 62%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Pattani v Buriram UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Pattani win17%

Draw21%

Buriram United win62%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueRainbow Stadium

Line-ups

Pattani

4-2-3-1

Buriram United

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pattani

Buriram United

7Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Buriram United	4	+4	10
13	Pattani	4	−3	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Pattani

4-2-3-1

13 D. Damyanov

22 B. Theppawong

26 Marlon

3 Rodolfo

24 C. Buran

5 N. Salae

64 T. Prueangna

17 Nacho Abeledo

8 Clayton

21 J. Da Sylva

9 Igor Neves

Coach · Harnnarong Chunhakunakorn

Substitutes

90 · Imron Hayiyusoh

40 · Kirati Kaewnongdang

36 · Kittipong Buathong

19 · I. Khamplio

30 · A. Lassamano

10 · Felipe Mundim Nunes

11 · J. Phokhi

46 · Sorawat Phosaman

2 · E. Samre

20 · Maicon Douglas

96 · Carlos de Almeida Parede Neto

15 · N. Biesamrit

Buriram United

4-2-3-1

13 N. Etheridge

19 K. Schindler

16 K. Dougall

5 Nathan

2 S. Haiprakhon

27 P. Sookjitthammakul

55 T. Bunmathan

9 S. Chaided

8 Paulinho

10 Sebas Moyano

7 Bissoli

Coach · Mário Silva

Substitutes

11 · A. Yodsangwal

15 · N. Weerawatnodom

30 · S. Schimmer

39 · J. Praisuwan

75 · S. Leeaoh

3 · P. Hemviboon

33 · T. Chotmuangpak

34 · C. Bootprom

Our number · buriram united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 12:50 · locked at kick-off

62% The market72%

Us62%

~~Market~~72%

We make Buriram United a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pattani v Buriram United~~1.08 – 2.22

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 10~~13 v 3

~~The market · Buriram United win~~72% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Buriram United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 61%, 62% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pattani win	17%	10%	+7
Draw	21%	18%	+3
Buriram United win	62%	72%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	64%	60%	+4
Both teams to score	58%	49%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	42%	40%	+2
Pattani or draw	38%	28%	+10
Pattani clean sheet	12%	–	–
Buriram United clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.8 7.4 9.0 6.7 3.8 1 3.4 9.6 9.4 6.8 3.9 2 2.3 4.8 5.1 3.7 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pattani down, Buriram United across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,236 Thai League 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pattani at home: 0.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Buriram United away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Pattani, 2.22 for Buriram United. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PAT 0–3 BUR · BUR 4–0 PAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 4 Sept

PATTANI

DWLL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–3

BURIRAM UNITED

WDWW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prachuap	5	+5	12
2	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
3	Buriram United	4	+4	10
4	Bangkok United	4	+4	9
5	Port FC	4	+2	9
6	Rayong FC	5	+1	8
7	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
8	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
9	Sisaket United	4	−1	6
10	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
11	BG Pathum United	4	0	5
12	Chiangrai United	4	−1	4
13	Pattani	4	−3	4
14	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
15	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1
16	Chonburi FC	5	−5	0