Lamphun Warrior v Bangkok United prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Bangkok United BANGKOK UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bangkok United win~~43%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.492

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.417

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bangkok United win at 43%.
2′Much as we predicted: Bangkok United was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 29–27–44
2′KICK-OFF Lamphun Warrior v Bangkok United
3′Much as we predicted: Bangkok United was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 29–27–43
17′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Putthinan Wannasri · Lamphun Warrior
45′SECOND HALF Lamphun Warrior 0–0 Bangkok United
46′SECOND HALF Lamphun Warrior 0–0 Bangkok United
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Lamphun Warrior 0–1 Bangkok United
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Lamphun Warrior 0–1 Bangkok United · William Popp
50′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Bangkok United · On: Wanchai Jarunongkran · Off: John-Patrick Strauss Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Lamphun Warrior · On: Suriya Singmui · Off: Wittaya Moonwong Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Bangkok United · On: Thitiphan Puangchan · Off: Pokklaw Anan Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Bangkok United · On: Picha Autra · Off: Anthony Caceres Corrected
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Baworn Tapla · Lamphun Warrior
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lamphun Warrior · On: Purachet Thodsanid · Off: Christian Ilić Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lamphun Warrior · On: Nuttee Noiwilai · Off: Osarenren Okungbowa Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Lamphun Warrior · On: Anderson · Off: Baworn Tapla Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bangkok United · On: Kakana Khamyok · Off: Marc Cardona Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Bangkok United · On: Felipe Santos · Off: Yonatan Cohen Corrected
85′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Lamphun Warrior · On: Athit Stephen Berg · Off: Putthinan Wannasri Corrected
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Bangkok United · William Popp
93′⚽ GOAL · 93' Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Bangkok United · Kakana Khamyok
FTFULL TIME Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Bangkok United
FTLamphun Warrior 0–2 Bangkok United · Bangkok United win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lamphun Warrior win29%

Draw29%

Bangkok United win43%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueLamphun PAO

Line-ups

Lamphun Warrior

3-4-3

Bangkok United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lamphun Warrior

Bangkok United

22Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Bangkok United	3	+2	6
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	−4	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lamphun Warrior

3-4-3

20 N. Muangngam

16 P. Wannasri

23 C. Clough

33 O. Okungbowa

7 D. Schad

32 B. Tapla

5 C. Tongkiri

2 W. Moonwong

6 C. Ilic

11 L. Fellipe

14 M. Osman

Coach · Dennis Amato

Substitutes

26 · K. Suklom

30 · S. Singmui

21 · N. Noiwilai

47 · N. Choosai

8 · A. Stephen Berg

18 · P. Thodsanid

96 · N. Promthongmee

9 · Anderson Chaves

82 · A. Suew

29 · T. Khotrsupho

10 · S. Suriyachai

27 · R. Hommala

Bangkok United

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Khammai

27 J. Beresford

26 S. Thongsong

3 Everton

6 J. Strauss

39 P. Anan

21 A. Caceres

4 W. Pomphan

18 Y. Cohen

20 M. Cardona

19 Willian Popp

Coach · –

Substitutes

29 · P. Pholsongkram

35 · K. Nontharath

43 · S. Booncharee

24 · W. Jarunongkran

22 · W. Inaram

8 · T. Puangchan

37 · P. Autra

17 · W. Imura

7 · K. Khamyok

10 · T. Dangda

97 · F. Santos

44 · N. Kangkratok

Our number · bangkok united winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

43% The market47%

Us43%

~~Market~~47%

We make Bangkok United a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bangkok united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lamphun Warrior win	29%	26%	+3
Draw	29%	27%	+2
Bangkok United win	43%	47%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	49%	−4
Both teams to score	51%	53%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−5
Lamphun Warrior or draw	57%	53%	+5
Lamphun Warrior clean sheet	25%	–	–
Bangkok United clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.5 10.3 8.0 3.8 1 7.8 13.5 8.6 4.1 2 5.0 6.8 4.8 2.3 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lamphun Warrior down, Bangkok United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Thai League 1 matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bangkok United away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Lamphun Warrior, 1.41 for Bangkok United. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:38. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LAM 1–1 BAN · BAN 4–3 LAM · LAM 0–1 BAN · BAN 3–2 LAM

Form · last six in Thai League 1

LAMPHUN WARRIOR

DDDLLD1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–1

BANGKOK UNITED

DWDWLW1–1 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buriram United	4	+4	10
2	Uthai Thani	4	+5	9
3	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
4	Rayong FC	4	+1	7
5	Ayutthaya FC	4	+1	7
6	Prachuap	3	+3	6
7	Bangkok United	3	+2	6
8	Port FC	3	+1	6
9	BG Pathum United	4	0	5
10	Chiangrai United	3	0	4
11	Pattani	3	−2	4
12	Sisaket United	3	−2	3
13	Sukhothai FC	4	−8	3
14	Rasi Salai United	4	−4	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	−4	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	−3	0