Chiangrai United v Ratchaburi prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 15:23

Chiangrai United 1–2 Ratchaburi RATCHABURI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ratchaburi win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.539

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.563

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ratchaburi win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ratchaburi was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 31–29–40
1′KICK-OFF Chiangrai United v Ratchaburi
31′We published Ratchaburi at 40%. Our model now makes it 71%. 0–1 · 9–20–71
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Chiangrai United 0–1 Ratchaburi
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Ratchaburi win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
32′Ratchaburi find the net on 31′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
32′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 9–20–71
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Thanawat Suengchitthawon · Ratchaburi
45′SECOND HALF Chiangrai United 0–1 Ratchaburi
48′HALF-TIME Chiangrai United 0–1 Ratchaburi
50′We published Ratchaburi at 40%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Ratchaburi · On: Sai Van Wermeskerken · Off: Njiva Rakotoharimalala
55′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Ratchaburi · On: Chotipat Poomkaew · Off: Sanchai Nontasila
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Chiangrai United · On: Douglas De Souza Nascimento · Off: Sansern Limwatthana
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Chiangrai United · On: Marco Ballini · Off: Hélio Monteiro Batista
65′We published Ratchaburi at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Ratchaburi win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ratchaburi · On: Phongsakon Sangkasopha · Off: Ekanit Panya
66′We published Ratchaburi at 40%. Our model now makes it 97%. 0–2 · 0–3–97
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Chiangrai United 0–2 Ratchaburi
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Ratchaburi win: 40% at kick-off, 97% now
68′Robert Žulj scores for Ratchaburi on 67′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–15–83
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Chiangrai United 1–2 Ratchaburi
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Ratchaburi win: 40% at kick-off, 83% now
72′71′: Jorge Eduardo Silva Costa on the scoresheet for Chiangrai United, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–84
74′We published Ratchaburi at 40%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
74′Chiangrai United have had 14 attempts to 9 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–85
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ratchaburi · On: Bruno Mendes · Off: Pedro Tanausú Domínguez Placeres
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ratchaburi · On: Thossawat Limwannasthian · Off: Thanawat Suengchitthawon
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Chiangrai United · On: Piyaphon Phanichakul · Off: Gustavo Schutz
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Chiangrai United · On: Victor Cardozo · Off: Pattarapon Suksakit
81′We published Ratchaburi at 40%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Ratchaburi win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Zé Ricardo · Chiangrai United
94′Full time, 1–2. We called Ratchaburi at 40% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Chiangrai United · On: Sanukran Thinjom · Off: Wanderson Papaterra Matos
FTFULL TIME Chiangrai United 1–2 Ratchaburi
FTChiangrai United 1–2 Ratchaburi · Ratchaburi win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ratchaburi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chiangrai United 31%, draw 29%, Ratchaburi 40%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Chiangrai United v RatchaburiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Chiangrai United win31%

Draw29%

Ratchaburi win40%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 5

VenueSingha Chiangrai Stadium

Line-ups

Chiangrai United

4-4-2

Ratchaburi

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chiangrai United

Ratchaburi

7Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 13 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
12	Chiangrai United	4	−1	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chiangrai United

4-4-2

1 A. Worawong

33 Zé Ricardo

15 P. Suksakit

28 Hélio Baptista

92 T. Inprakhon

9 H. Stewart

80 Sansern Limwatthana

8 Wanderson Papaterra

11 Robinho

19 Gustavo Schutz

10 Jorge Eduardo Silva Costa

Coach · W. Wangsawad

Substitutes

20 · T. Jaihan

23 · Victor Cardozo

4 · Piyaphon Phanichakul

37 · P. Phoptham

32 · M. Promsawat

3 · T. Srisai

7 · S. Thinjom

17 · G. Verzura

34 · S. Wongruankhum

21 · Douglas De Souza Nascimento

5 · M. Ballini

39 · Adithep Phuangphaka

Ratchaburi

4-2-3-1

99 K. Phatomakkakul

27 J. Curran

3 Tarek Aggoun

5 D. Ting

20 Sanchai Nontasila

16 Roque Mesa

8 T. Suengchitthawon

21 E. Panya

6 Tana

92 Njiva Rakotoharimalala

32 R. Žulj

Coach · W. Srimaka

Substitutes

9 · Bruno Mendes

23 · K. Deeromram

28 · T. Limwanasathian

42 · S. Panthong

88 · C. Poomkaew

33 · P. Promjan

22 · P. Sangkasopha

37 · K. Srisuwan

97 · U. Wongmeema

19 · Teeraphol Yoryoei

31 · S. van Wermeskerken

Our number · ratchaburi winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Ratchaburi a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chiangrai United v Ratchaburi~~1.18 – 1.37

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L2 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~12 v 7

~~The market · Ratchaburi win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ratchaburi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chiangrai United win	31%	33%	−2
Draw	29%	28%	+1
Ratchaburi win	40%	39%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	47%	47%	0
Both teams to score	52%	52%	0
Over 1.5 goals	73%	70%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	27%	−2
Chiangrai United or draw	60%	61%	−1
Chiangrai United clean sheet	26%	–	–
Ratchaburi clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.6%

0123450 9.3 9.6 7.3 3.4 1 8.1 13.6 8.4 3.9 2 5.5 7.3 4.9 2.3 3 2.2 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chiangrai United down, Ratchaburi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,236 Thai League 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chiangrai United at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ratchaburi away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Chiangrai United, 1.37 for Ratchaburi. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 12:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHI 1–0 RAT · RAT 1–2 CHI · CHI 1–2 RAT · CHI 0–1 RAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

CHIANGRAI UNITED

WDLL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

RATCHABURI

LWDW1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prachuap	5	+5	12
2	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
3	Buriram United	4	+4	10
4	Bangkok United	4	+4	9
5	Port FC	4	+2	9
6	Rayong FC	5	+1	8
7	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
8	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
9	Sisaket United	4	−1	6
10	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
11	BG Pathum United	4	0	5
12	Chiangrai United	4	−1	4
13	Pattani	4	−3	4
14	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
15	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1
16	Chonburi FC	5	−5	0