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Buriram United v Sisaket United

Buriram United
2–3Full time
Sisaket United

Thai League 1 · SAT 24 OCT · Chang Arena

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38
Buriram United 2–3 Sisaket United BURIRAM UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Buriram United win80%
The market said74%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.540
The market’s Brier score1.403

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 34 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Buriram United win at 80%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Buriram United 80% before kick-off, 80% now. 0–0 · 80–13–6
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Buriram United v Sisaket United
  4. 26′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–1 · 49–25–27
  5. 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Buriram United 0–1 Sisaket United
  6. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Buriram United win: 80% at kick-off, 49% now
  7. 27′Sisaket United ahead on 26′ through Kittipong Wongma. 0–1. 0–1 · 48–25–27
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 46–26–28
  9. 31′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–2 · 23–22–55
  10. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Buriram United 0–2 Sisaket United
  11. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Buriram United win: 80% at kick-off, 23% now
  12. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Sisaket United win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Buriram United win 45%)
  13. 32′Jefesson Vieira Eufrazio scores for Sisaket United on 31′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 23–22–55
  14. 35′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–2 · 43–27–30
  15. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Buriram United 1–2 Sisaket United
  16. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 35' Buriram United win: 80% at kick-off, 43% now
  17. 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Buriram United win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Sisaket United win 57%)
  18. 36′35′: Supachai Chaided on the scoresheet for Buriram United, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 42–27–31
  19. 39′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Buriram United · On: Kingsley Schindler · Off: Paulinho
  20. 40′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–2 · 39–28–33
  21. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Sittichok Kannoo · Sisaket United
  22. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Buriram United · On: Goran Čaušić · Off: Theerathon Bunmathan
  23. 45′SECOND HALF Buriram United 1–2 Sisaket United
  24. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Buriram United · On: Thanakrit Chotmuangpak · Off: Sebas Moyano
  25. 46′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–2 · 34–30–36
  26. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sisaket United · On: Denis Paul Kun Darbellay · Off: Sittichok Kannoo
  27. 47′HALF-TIME Buriram United 1–2 Sisaket United
  28. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Sisaket United win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Buriram United win 35%)
  29. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Buriram United win: 80% at kick-off, 30% now
  30. 52′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–2 · 29–31–40
  31. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Kenneth Dougall · Buriram United
  32. 61′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 2–2 · 53–38–9
  33. 61′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 53–38–9
  34. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Buriram United · On: Darlan Pereira Mendes · Off: Supachai Chaided
  35. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Buriram United 2–2 Sisaket United
  36. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Buriram United win: 80% at kick-off, 53% now
  37. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Buriram United win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Sisaket United win 47%)
  38. 63′Buriram United level it on 62′ through Kingsley Schindler. 2–2. 2–2 · 51–40–9
  39. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sisaket United · On: Hikaru Matsui · Off: Patrick Valverde Peral Lopez
  40. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Buriram United win 46%)
  41. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Buriram United win: 80% at kick-off, 40% now
  42. 73′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 2–3 · 10–29–62
  43. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Buriram United 2–3 Sisaket United
  44. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Buriram United win: 80% at kick-off, 10% now
  45. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Sisaket United win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Draw 54%)
  46. 74′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–3 · 9–28–63
  47. 74′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 9–28–63
  48. 75′Jefesson Vieira Eufrazio scores for Sisaket United on 74′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 8–27–65
  49. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Sisaket United · On: Anderson Carneiro · Off: Jefesson Vieira Eufrazio
  50. 80′We said Buriram United at 80%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–3 · 4–22–74
  51. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Buriram United · On: Stefan Schimmer · Off: Phitiwat Sookjitthammakul
  52. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sisaket United · On: Sakkranvit Nimma · Off: Narongrit Kamnet
  53. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Buriram United win: 80% at kick-off, under 1% now
  54. 95′2–3 at the end. Our 80% on Buriram United misses, and the record keeps it. 2–3 · 0–0–100
  55. FTFULL TIME Buriram United 2–3 Sisaket United
  56. FTBuriram United 2–3 Sisaket United · Buriram United win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Buriram United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Buriram United 80%, draw 13%, Sisaket United 6%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Buriram United v Sisaket UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Buriram United win80%
Draw13%
Sisaket United win6%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 6

VenueChang Arena

Line-ups

Buriram United

4-2-3-1

Sisaket United

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Buriram United

Sisaket United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Buriram United5+513
9Sisaket United5−17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Buriram United

4-2-3-1

13 N. Etheridge

39 J. Praisuwan

16 K. Dougall

5 Nathan

2 S. Haiprakhon

27 P. Sookjitthammakul

55 T. Bunmathan

9 S. Chaided

8 Paulinho

10 Sebas Moyano

7 Bissoli

Coach · Mário Silva

Substitutes

30 · S. Schimmer

54 · N. Rattanasuwan

37 · Darlan

29 · K. Nareechan

75 · S. Leeaoh

3 · P. Hemviboon

33 · T. Chotmuangpak

19 · K. Schindler

15 · N. Weerawatnodom

11 · A. Yodsangwal

23 · G. Čaušić

Sisaket United

4-4-2

77 Steven van Dijk

3 Borech

5 Pakornkiat Kaena

35 I. Honny

45 Chutikom Klinchampasri

23 N. Kamnet

20 Patrick

19 K. Wongma

7 Alex Mermoz Djatche Nandje

99 S. Kannoo

9 Jefesson Vieira Eufrazio

Coach · S. Chuayboonchum

Substitutes

2 · D. Darbellay

10 · Deyvison

27 · Phiyawat Intarapim

39 · A. Jaiphet

8 · Hikaru Matsui

88 · Sakkranvit Nimma

44 · Natthasan Pakkarano

11 · Phattharapong Phengchaem

97 · Suttichai Pongson

6 · Anderson Carneiro

67 · Arthit Bua-ngam

Our number · buriram united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
80% The market74%
Us80%
Market74%

We make Buriram United an 80% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Buriram United v Sisaket United2.95 – 0.73
Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 SeptW4 D1 L0 · W2 D1 L2
Table places · points 13 v 71 v 9
The market · Buriram United win74% · ours 80%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
70%75%80%85% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 12:24
Our probability · Buriram United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 81%, 80% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Buriram United win80%74%+6
Draw13%16%−3
Sisaket United win6%9%−3
Over 2.5 goals70%64%+6
Both teams to score49%48%+1
Over 1.5 goals88%82%+6
Over 3.5 goals50%44%+6
Buriram United or draw94%91%+3
Buriram United clean sheet49%––
Sisaket United clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.9%
0123450 3.4 1 7.2 6.2 2.1 2 10.9 7.8 2.9 3 10.4 7.4 2.7 4 7.7 5.4 5 4.7 3.3
under 2% 5% 12%+Buriram United down, Sisaket United across0–5 goals a side shown (91.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

BURIRAM UNITED

WDWWW3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–0

SISAKET UNITED

LLWWD1–3 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Buriram United5+513
2Prachuap5+512
3Port FC5+412
4Ratchaburi5+710
5Uthai Thani5+510
6Bangkok United5+29
7Rayong FC5+18
8Ayutthaya FC5−17
9Sisaket United5−17
10BG Pathum United506
11Sukhothai FC5−46
12Chiangrai United5−24
13Lamphun Warrior5−44
14Pattani5−44
15Rasi Salai United5−81
16Chonburi FC5−50

The competition's standings before kick-off.