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Buriram United v Rayong FC

Buriram United

3–2Full time

Rayong FC

Thai League 1 · SAT 10 OCT · Chang Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Buriram United 3–2 Rayong FC BURIRAM UNITED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Buriram United win~~82%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.052

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.089

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 39 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Buriram United win at 82%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Buriram United 82% before kick-off, 82% now. 0–0 · 82–11–7
1′KICK-OFF Buriram United v Rayong FC
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Buriram United 0–1 Rayong FC
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' Buriram United 0–1 Rayong FC
15′⚽ GOAL · 13' Buriram United 0–1 Rayong FC · João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni (assist João Vitor Coutinho Maia)
20′13′ and it is 0–1: João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni on the scoresheet for Rayong FC. 0–1 · 55–22–23
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Buriram United win: 82% at kick-off, 55% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Sebas Moyano · Buriram United
32′🟨 YELLOW · 30' João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni · Rayong FC
35′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Buriram United · On: Phitiwat Sookjitthammakul · Off: Uroš Radaković Corrected
41′We said Buriram United at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 41%. 0–1 · 41–28–31
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Buriram United win: 82% at kick-off, 41% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Buriram United 1–1 Rayong FC · João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni
44′⚽ GOAL · 45' Buriram United 1–1 Rayong FC · Stefan Schimmer
45′SECOND HALF Buriram United 1–1 Rayong FC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Rayong FC · On: Yeo Hong-Gyu · Off: João Vitor Coutinho Maia Corrected
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Buriram United 1–2 Rayong FC · Stefan Schimmer
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Buriram United 1–2 Rayong FC · Cristian·Magerusan
51′Buriram United ahead on 45′ through Stefan Schimmer. 1–1. 1–1 · 67–24–9
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Buriram United win: 82% at kick-off, 67% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Kenneth William Dougall · Buriram United
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Buriram United 1–2 Rayong FC · Stefan Schimmer
56′⚽ GOAL · 57' Buriram United 1–2 Rayong FC · João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni
57′João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni scores for Rayong FC on 56′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 27–32–41
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Buriram United win: 82% at kick-off, 27% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Rayong FC win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Buriram United win 27%)
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Buriram United · On: Paulinho · Off: Jakkaphan Praisuwan Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Buriram United · On: Supachai Chaided · Off: Stefan Schimmer Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rayong FC · On: Pharadon Phatthaphon · Off: Thanawat Pimyotha Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Rayong FC · On: Renan Gorne · Off: Cristian·Magerusan Corrected
78′We said Buriram United at 82%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–2 · 6–26–68
78′🟥 RED CARD · 78' Rayong FC
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Buriram United win: 82% at kick-off, 6% now
79′🟥 RED CARD · 79' João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni · Rayong FC
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Buriram United 2–2 Rayong FC · João Felipe Proscinski Giaccomoni
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Buriram United 2–2 Rayong FC · Supachai Chaided
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Buriram United · On: Thanakrit Chotmuangpak · Off: Sebas Moyano Corrected
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Buriram United 3–2 Rayong FC · Supachai Chaided
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Rayong FC · On: Supawit Romphopak · Off: Thanaset Sujarit Corrected
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Buriram United 2–2 Rayong FC · Guilherme Bissoli (assist Paulinho)
93′⚽ GOAL · 94' Buriram United 3–2 Rayong FC · Thanakrit Chotmuangpak
94′Buriram United ahead on 90′ through Thanakrit Chotmuangpak. 3–2. 3–2 · 100–0–0
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 94' Buriram United win: 82% at kick-off, 100% now
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 94' Buriram United win is now our likeliest result at 100% (was Rayong FC win 0%)
96′SUBSTITUTION · 96' Rayong FC · On: Hiromichi Katano · Off: Bruno Leite Corrected
FTFULL TIME Buriram United 3–2 Rayong FC
FTBuriram United 3–2 Rayong FC · Buriram United win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Buriram United win82%

Draw12%

Rayong FC win6%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Chang Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Buriram United

3-5-2

13 N. Etheridge

39 J. Praisuwan

26 U. Radakovic

5 Nathan Pelae

19 K. Schindler

16 K. Dougall

10 S. Moyano

55 T. Bunmathan

2 S. Haiprakon

7 Bissoli

30 S. Schimmer

Coach · Mario Silva

Substitutes

34 · C. Bootprom

75 · S. Lee-Oh

15 · N. Weerawatnodom

3 · P. Hemviboon

8 · Paulinho

27 · P. Sookjitthammakul

33 · T. Chotmuangpak

9 · S. Jaided

11 · A. Yodsangwal

Rayong FC

4-3-3

30 W. Ganthong

15 T. Sujarit

37 Mayron

94 Antonio Lara

3 T. Pimoytha

17 Bruno Leite

6 Joao Afonso

8 N. Promsomboon

98 Joao Felipe

99 C. Magerusan

10 Coutinho

Coach · Aktaporn Chalitaporn

Substitutes

36 · W. Srisupha

5 · P. Phatthanaphon

4 · H. Katano

2 · N. Kerdkaew

18 · P. Ngernprasert

79 · P. Phothep

7 · M. Sarakum

22 · C. Pombuppha

19 · S. Romphopak

77 · Yeo Hong-Gyu

26 · Renan Gorne

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Buriram United

3-5-2

13 N. Etheridge

39 J. Praisuwan

26 U. Radakovic

5 Nathan Pelae

19 K. Schindler

16 K. Dougall

10 S. Moyano

55 T. Bunmathan

2 S. Haiprakon

7 Bissoli

30 S. Schimmer

Coach · Mario Silva

Substitutes

34 · C. Bootprom

75 · S. Lee-Oh

15 · N. Weerawatnodom

3 · P. Hemviboon

8 · Paulinho

27 · P. Sookjitthammakul

33 · T. Chotmuangpak

9 · S. Jaided

11 · A. Yodsangwal

Rayong FC

4-3-3

30 W. Ganthong

15 T. Sujarit

37 Mayron

94 Antonio Lara

3 T. Pimoytha

17 Bruno Leite

6 Joao Afonso

8 N. Promsomboon

98 Joao Felipe

99 C. Magerusan

10 Coutinho

Coach · Aktaporn Chalitaporn

Substitutes

36 · W. Srisupha

5 · P. Phatthanaphon

4 · H. Katano

2 · N. Kerdkaew

18 · P. Ngernprasert

79 · P. Phothep

7 · M. Sarakum

22 · C. Pombuppha

19 · S. Romphopak

77 · Yeo Hong-Gyu

26 · Renan Gorne

Our number · buriram united winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

82% The market76%

Us82%

~~Market~~76%

We make Buriram United a 82% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.2–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · buriram united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 78% to 76% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Buriram United win	82%	76%	+6
Draw	12%	15%	−3
Rayong FC win	6%	9%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	77%	65%	+12
Both teams to score	55%	48%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	91%	83%	+8
Over 3.5 goals	58%	44%	+14
Buriram United or draw	94%	91%	+3
Buriram United clean sheet	43%	–	–
Rayong FC clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.2%

0123450 2.3 1 5.2 5.2 2.1 2 8.7 7.4 3.2 3 9.2 7.8 3.4 4 7.4 6.2 2.7 5 4.9 4.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Buriram United down, Rayong FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,225 Thai League 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Buriram United at home: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rayong FC away: 1.33 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.22 goals for Buriram United, 0.86 for Rayong FC. Most likely score 3–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:12. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RAY 3–0 BUR · BUR 2–1 RAY · BUR 2–1 RAY · RAY 1–1 BUR

Form · last six in Thai League 1

BURIRAM UNITED

LLDWDW0–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

RAYONG FC

WLDWWD3–0 · 1–6 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
2	Buriram United	3	+3	7
3	Rayong FC	3	+2	7
4	Uthai Thani	3	+3	6
5	Prachuap	3	+3	6
6	Bangkok United	3	+2	6
7	Port FC	3	+1	6
8	Ayutthaya FC	3	+1	6
9	BG Pathum United	3	0	4
10	Chiangrai United	3	0	4
11	Pattani	3	−2	4
12	Sisaket United	3	−2	3
13	Sukhothai FC	4	−8	3
14	Rasi Salai United	3	−2	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	−4	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	−3	0