BG Pathum United v Chiangrai United prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

BG Pathum United 2–0 Chiangrai United BG PATHUM UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BG Pathum United win~~56%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.296

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.276

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BG Pathum United win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: BG Pathum United was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–27–18
1′KICK-OFF BG Pathum United v Chiangrai United
6′We published BG Pathum United at 56%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–12–6
6′A goal for BG Pathum United on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–12–6
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' BG Pathum United 1–0 Chiangrai United
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' BG Pathum United win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 82–14–4
30′A red card for Chiangrai United on 28′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 82–14–4
30′🟥 RED CARD · 28' Zé Ricardo · Chiangrai United
34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Chiangrai United · On: Victor Cardozo · Off: Gustavo Schutz
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Ashley Mark Coffey · BG Pathum United
45′HALF-TIME BG Pathum United 1–0 Chiangrai United
46′SECOND HALF BG Pathum United 1–0 Chiangrai United
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' BG Pathum United · On: Fabio Kaufmann · Off: Ratthasat Buaban
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Jorge Eduardo Silva Costa · Chiangrai United
56′We published BG Pathum United at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
58′Chiangrai United have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 85–13–2
61′We published BG Pathum United at 56%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' BG Pathum United win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' BG Pathum United 2–0 Chiangrai United
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' BG Pathum United win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' BG Pathum United · On: Joao Magno · Off: Ashley Mark Coffey
63′61′: Fabio Kaufmann on the scoresheet for BG Pathum United, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' BG Pathum United · On: Leon Pitchaya James · Off: Elias Dolah
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Chiangrai United · On: Douglas De Souza Nascimento · Off: Hélio Monteiro Batista
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Chiangrai United · On: Sansern Limwatthana · Off: Sanukran Thinjom
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Chiangrai United · On: Wendell · Off: Harhys Stewart
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' BG Pathum United · On: Chanathip Songkrasin · Off: Lucas Andersen
78′We published BG Pathum United at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Sarach Yooyen · BG Pathum United
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' BG Pathum United · On: Runpiset Phutummee · Off: Marko Nikolić
FTFULL TIME BG Pathum United 2–0 Chiangrai United
FTBG Pathum United 2–0 Chiangrai United · BG Pathum United win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

BG Pathum United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BG Pathum United 56%, draw 27%, Chiangrai United 18%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on BG Pathum United v Chiangrai UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

BG Pathum United win56%

Draw27%

Chiangrai United win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 6

VenueTrue BG Stadium

Line-ups

BG Pathum United

4-3-3

Chiangrai United

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BG Pathum United

Chiangrai United

3Days since last match3

Last match: 21 Oct · FA Cup (Thailand)

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	BG Pathum United	5	0	6
12	Chiangrai United	5	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BG Pathum United

4-3-3

28 S. Anuin

48 W. Choolthong

5 K. Kaman

50 E. Osmanović

8 A. Pumwisat

10 Lucas Andersen

6 S. Yooyen

44 Marko Nikolić

17 E. Dolah

19 A. Coffey

91 Ratthasat Buaban

Coach · Peerapong Pichitchotirat

Substitutes

18 · C. Songkrasin

62 · Runpiset Phutummee

2 · C. Tamma

25 · P. Tanthatemee

4 · L. James

49 · N. Ineachaeoen

26 · A. Belmonte

37 · F. Kaufmann

45 · João Magno

79 · W. Phraothaisong

24 · S. Pongsuwan

39 · T. Siripala

Chiangrai United

4-4-2

1 A. Worawong

33 Zé Ricardo

15 P. Suksakit

28 Hélio Baptista

92 T. Inprakhon

9 H. Stewart

7 S. Thinjom

8 Wanderson Papaterra

11 Robinho

19 Gustavo Schutz

10 Jorge Eduardo Silva Costa

Coach · W. Wangsawad

Substitutes

20 · T. Jaihan

71 · Thanakrit Kaewrungroj

80 · Sansern Limwatthana

23 · Victor Cardozo

4 · Piyaphon Phanichakul

37 · P. Phoptham

32 · M. Promsawat

3 · T. Srisai

17 · G. Verzura

34 · S. Wongruankhum

21 · Douglas De Souza Nascimento

90 · Wendell

Our number · bg pathum united winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

56% The market57%

Us56%

~~Market~~57%

We make BG Pathum United a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BG Pathum United v Chiangrai United~~1.65 – 0.82

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D3 L1 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 4~~10 v 12

~~The market · BG Pathum United win~~57% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · BG Pathum United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BG Pathum United win	56%	57%	−1
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Chiangrai United win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	45%	50%	−5
Both teams to score	46%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	71%	73%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	30%	−6
BG Pathum United or draw	82%	82%	0
BG Pathum United clean sheet	44%	–	–
Chiangrai United clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 9.8 6.0 2.9 1 12.9 12.3 4.6 2 11.4 9.2 3.8 3 6.3 5.1 2.1 4 2.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BG Pathum United down, Chiangrai United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,240 Thai League 1 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.0% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BG Pathum United at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chiangrai United away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for BG Pathum United, 0.82 for Chiangrai United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BGP 2–2 CHI · CHI 1–0 BGP · CHI 1–0 BGP · BGP 2–0 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 4 Sept

BG PATHUM UNITED

DWLDD0–0 · 3–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

CHIANGRAI UNITED

WDLLL1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buriram United	5	+5	13
2	Prachuap	5	+5	12
3	Port FC	5	+4	12
4	Ratchaburi	5	+7	10
5	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
6	Bangkok United	5	+2	9
7	Rayong FC	5	+1	8
8	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
9	Sisaket United	5	−1	7
10	BG Pathum United	5	0	6
11	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
12	Chiangrai United	5	−2	4
13	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
14	Pattani	5	−4	4
15	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1
16	Chonburi FC	5	−5	0