Home › Football › Thai League 1 › BG Pathum United v Ayutthaya FC

BG Pathum United v Ayutthaya FC

BG Pathum United

1–1Full time

Ayutthaya FC

Thai League 1 · SAT 10 OCT · True BG Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 14:35

BG Pathum United 1–1 Ayutthaya FC BG PATHUM UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said BG Pathum United win~~64%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.039

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.084

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said BG Pathum United win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: BG Pathum United was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–20–14
1′KICK-OFF BG Pathum United v Ayutthaya FC
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Marko Nikolić · BG Pathum United
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' BG Pathum United 0–1 Ayutthaya FC
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' BG Pathum United 0–1 Ayutthaya FC · Willen Mota
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Anthony Belmonte · BG Pathum United
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Lucas Dias do Nascimento Serafim · Ayutthaya FC
42′Willen Mota scores for Ayutthaya FC on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 22–30–48
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' BG Pathum United win: 64% at kick-off, 22% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Ayutthaya FC win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was BG Pathum United win 22%)
45′We said BG Pathum United at 64%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–30–50
45′HALF-TIME BG Pathum United 0–1 Ayutthaya FC
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' BG Pathum United · On: Kritsada Kaman · Off: Waris Chuthong Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' BG Pathum United · On: Sarach Yooyen · Off: Leon Pitchaya James Corrected
46′SECOND HALF BG Pathum United 0–1 Ayutthaya FC
50′SUBSTITUTION · 45' BG Pathum United · On: Joao Magno · Off: Matheus Costa
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' BG Pathum United 1–1 Ayutthaya FC · Willen Mota
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' BG Pathum United 1–1 Ayutthaya FC · Patrik Gustavsson
61′🟥 RED CARD · 59' Diogo·Araujo Brito · Ayutthaya FC
62′54′ and it is 1–1: Patrik Gustavsson on the scoresheet for BG Pathum United. 1–1 · 39–48–13
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' BG Pathum United win: 64% at kick-off, 39% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Ayutthaya FC win 13%)
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Hyun-Soo Hwang · Ayutthaya FC
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Yuki Kusano · Ayutthaya FC
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' BG Pathum United · On: Surachat Sareepim · Off: Ashley Mark Coffey Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ayutthaya FC · On: Caique · Off: Willen Mota Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Ayutthaya FC · On: Chanukun Karin · Off: Yuki Kusano Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ayutthaya FC · On: Chakkit Laptrakul · Off: Guntapon Keereeleang Corrected
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' BG Pathum United 2–1 Ayutthaya FC · Surachat Sareepim
82′Ayutthaya FC are down to ten from 62′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 15–79–6
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' BG Pathum United win: 64% at kick-off, 15% now
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Bhumchanok Kamkla · Ayutthaya FC
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' BG Pathum United · On: Akarapong Pumwisat · Off: Marko Nikolić Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Passakorn Biaothungoi · Ayutthaya FC
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Fabio Kaufmann · BG Pathum United
FTFULL TIME BG Pathum United 1–1 Ayutthaya FC
FTBG Pathum United 1–1 Ayutthaya FC · BG Pathum United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

BG Pathum United win64%

Draw22%

Ayutthaya FC win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:00

Venue · True BG Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

BG Pathum United

4-3-3

28 S. Anuin

48 W. Choolthong

44 M. Nikolic

50 E. Osmanovic

37 F. Kaufmann

26 A. Belmonte

4 L. James

22 Matheus Costa

11 P. Gustavsson

19 A. Coffey

10 L. Andersen

Coach · Vladimir Vujovic

Substitutes

49 · N. Inthacharoen

13 · I. Waewdee

17 · E. Dolah

24 · S. Pongsuwan

2 · C. Tamma

25 · P. Tanthatemee

5 · K. Kaman

6 · S. Yooyen

8 · A. Pumwisat

9 · S. Sareepim

39 · T. Siripala

45 · Joao Magno

Ayutthaya FC

4-3-3

1 W. Makemusik

23 P. Biaothungoi

36 D. Brito

2 Hwang Hyun-Soo

47 B. Kamkla

6 Ewerton

4 K. Palic

25 Y. Kusano

7 Lucas Dias

9 Willen Mota

97 G. Keereeleang

Coach · Jugkrit Siriwattanasart

Substitutes

13 · S. Ingkaew

22 · S. Nichakam

5 · A. Changthong

21 · T. Rungrampan

15 · D. Kerkez

55 · S. Sompim

8 · N. Worasut

10 · C. Karin

29 · S. Dechmitr

17 · C. Laptrakul

77 · Caique Lemes

19 · C. Wanpraphao

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

BG Pathum United

4-3-3

28 S. Anuin

48 W. Choolthong

44 M. Nikolic

50 E. Osmanovic

37 F. Kaufmann

26 A. Belmonte

4 L. James

22 Matheus Costa

11 P. Gustavsson

19 A. Coffey

10 L. Andersen

Coach · Vladimir Vujovic

Substitutes

49 · N. Inthacharoen

13 · I. Waewdee

17 · E. Dolah

24 · S. Pongsuwan

2 · C. Tamma

25 · P. Tanthatemee

5 · K. Kaman

6 · S. Yooyen

8 · A. Pumwisat

9 · S. Sareepim

39 · T. Siripala

45 · Joao Magno

Ayutthaya FC

4-3-3

1 W. Makemusik

23 P. Biaothungoi

36 D. Brito

2 Hwang Hyun-Soo

47 B. Kamkla

6 Ewerton

4 K. Palic

25 Y. Kusano

7 Lucas Dias

9 Willen Mota

97 G. Keereeleang

Coach · Jugkrit Siriwattanasart

Substitutes

13 · S. Ingkaew

22 · S. Nichakam

5 · A. Changthong

21 · T. Rungrampan

15 · D. Kerkez

55 · S. Sompim

8 · N. Worasut

10 · C. Karin

29 · S. Dechmitr

17 · C. Laptrakul

77 · Caique Lemes

19 · C. Wanpraphao

Our number · bg pathum united winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

64% The market66%

Us64%

~~Market~~66%

We make BG Pathum United a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · bg pathum united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 68% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BG Pathum United win	64%	66%	−2
Draw	22%	20%	+2
Ayutthaya FC win	14%	14%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	57%	−3
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Over 3.5 goals	32%	36%	−4
BG Pathum United or draw	86%	86%	0
BG Pathum United clean sheet	44%	–	–
Ayutthaya FC clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 4.0 2.0 1 11.0 10.4 3.9 2 11.8 9.5 3.9 3 8.0 6.4 2.6 4 4.1 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BG Pathum United down, Ayutthaya FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,225 Thai League 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BG Pathum United at home: 2.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ayutthaya FC away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for BG Pathum United, 0.82 for Ayutthaya FC. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 11:37. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AYU 0–2 BGP · BGP 1–0 AYU

Form · last six in Thai League 1

BG PATHUM UNITED

WDWDWL1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 2–3

AYUTTHAYA FC

LLLWWL1–3 · 1–4 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
2	Buriram United	3	+3	7
3	Rayong FC	3	+2	7
4	Uthai Thani	3	+3	6
5	Prachuap	3	+3	6
6	Bangkok United	3	+2	6
7	Port FC	3	+1	6
8	Ayutthaya FC	3	+1	6
9	BG Pathum United	3	0	4
10	Chiangrai United	3	0	4
11	Pattani	3	−2	4
12	Sisaket United	3	−2	3
13	Sukhothai FC	4	−8	3
14	Rasi Salai United	3	−2	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	3	−4	1
16	Chonburi FC	3	−3	0