Bangkok United v Port FC prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:51

Bangkok United 0–2 Port FC BANGKOK UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bangkok United win~~46%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.815

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bangkok United win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Bangkok United was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–27
1′KICK-OFF Bangkok United v Port FC
22′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Bangkok United · On: Kakana Khamyok · Off: Yonatan Cohen
45′SECOND HALF Bangkok United 0–0 Port FC
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Bangkok United win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
48′HALF-TIME Bangkok United 0–0 Port FC
48′🟨 YELLOW · 45+4' Suphan Thongsong · Bangkok United
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Bangkok United win 35%)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Peerawat Akkratum · Port FC
50′We said Bangkok United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–65
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Bangkok United 0–1 Port FC
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Bangkok United win: 46% at kick-off, 11% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Port FC win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 24%)
52′Worachit Kanitsribumphen scores for Port FC on 50′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–24–66
54′We said Bangkok United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Peeradol Chamrasamee · Port FC
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Bangkok United · On: Pokklaw Anan · Off: Thitiphan Puangchan
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Bangkok United · On: Marc Cardona · Off: Anthony Caceres
59′We said Bangkok United at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–92
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Bangkok United 0–2 Port FC
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Bangkok United win: 46% at kick-off, 1% now
60′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 1–6–93
60′59′: Teerasak Poeiphimai on the scoresheet for Port FC, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Port FC · On: Jude Soonsup-Bell · Off: Seksan Ratree
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Port FC · On: Tanaboon Kesarat · Off: Jakkaphan Kaewprom
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Port FC · On: Essam Al-Subhi · Off: Teerasak Poeiphimai
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Bangkok United · On: Picha Autra · Off: Teerasil Dangda
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Bangkok United · On: Felipe Santos · Off: Weerathep Pomphan
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Port FC · On: Bordin Phala · Off: Worachit Kanitsribumphen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Port FC · On: Sivakorn Tiatrakul · Off: Bruno Moreira Soares
FTFULL TIME Bangkok United 0–2 Port FC
FTBangkok United 0–2 Port FC · Bangkok United win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bangkok United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bangkok United 46%, draw 27%, Port FC 27%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Bangkok United v Port FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bangkok United win46%

Draw27%

Port FC win27%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueThammasat Stadium

Line-ups

Bangkok United

4-3-3

Port FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bangkok United

Port FC

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Bangkok United	4	+4	9
5	Port FC	4	+2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bangkok United

4-3-3

1 P. Khammai

27 J. Beresford

26 S. Thongsong

3 Everton Gonçalves Saturnino

24 W. Jarunongkran

8 T. Puangchan

21 Anthony Caceres

4 W. Pomphan

18 Yonatan Cohen

10 T. Dangda

19 Willian Popp

Coach · T. Sripan

Substitutes

37 · P. Autra

39 · P. A-nan

43 · S. Booncharee

20 · Marc Cardona

17 · W. Imura

22 · W. Inaram

44 · N. Kangkratok

7 · K. Khamyok

35 · K. Nontharat

29 · Phuwadol Pholsongkram

97 · Felipe Santos

71 · Phurich Subhensawang

Port FC

4-2-3-1

93 M. Falkesgaard

4 S. Bureerat

36 P. Akkratum

15 M. Bihr

25 C. Otton

5 P. Chamrasamee

24 J. Kaewprom

17 S. Ratree

22 W. Kanitsribumphen

11 Bruno

14 T. Poeiphimai

Coach · Bozidar Bandovic

Substitutes

16 · C. Wongchai

21 · S. Tiatrakul

28 · E. Sviatchenko

18 · Jude Jacob Soonsup-Bell

34 · N. Selanon

10 · B. Phala

8 · T. Kesarat

20 · Marcel Scalese

77 · H. Boutsingkham

47 · S. Boonlha

7 · Issam Al Sabhi

1 · S. Yos

Our number · bangkok united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

46% The market46%

Us46%

~~Market~~46%

We make Bangkok United a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bangkok United v Port FC~~1.59 – 1.17

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L1 · W3 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~4 v 5

~~The market · Bangkok United win~~46% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bangkok United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bangkok United win	46%	46%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Port FC win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	52%	58%	−6
Both teams to score	55%	60%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	77%	79%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	40%	−10
Bangkok United or draw	73%	73%	0
Bangkok United clean sheet	31%	–	–
Port FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.7 6.4 4.4 1 9.0 12.7 6.8 2.7 2 8.0 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 4.3 4.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bangkok United down, Port FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,236 Thai League 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.3% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.90 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bangkok United at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Port FC away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Bangkok United, 1.17 for Port FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.90

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–1 POR · POR 2–0 BAN · POR 0–0 BAN · POR 0–0 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 5 Sept

BANGKOK UNITED

WLWW3–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 2–0

PORT FC

WWLW2–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Prachuap	5	+5	12
2	Uthai Thani	5	+5	10
3	Buriram United	4	+4	10
4	Bangkok United	4	+4	9
5	Port FC	4	+2	9
6	Rayong FC	5	+1	8
7	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
8	Ayutthaya FC	5	−1	7
9	Sisaket United	4	−1	6
10	Sukhothai FC	5	−4	6
11	BG Pathum United	4	0	5
12	Chiangrai United	4	−1	4
13	Pattani	4	−3	4
14	Lamphun Warrior	5	−4	4
15	Rasi Salai United	5	−8	1
16	Chonburi FC	5	−5	0