Ayutthaya FC v Lamphun Warrior prediction · Thai League 1

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 15:31

Ayutthaya FC 0–2 Lamphun Warrior AYUTTHAYA FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ayutthaya FC win~~44%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.798

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.611

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ayutthaya FC win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ayutthaya FC was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
1′KICK-OFF Ayutthaya FC v Lamphun Warrior
14′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Osarenren Okungbowa · Lamphun Warrior
34′Lamphun Warrior have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 39–35–26
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ayutthaya FC win 35%)
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Lamphun Warrior · On: Athit Stephen Berg · Off: Osarenren Okungbowa
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ayutthaya FC · On: Nattapon Worasut · Off: Chakkit Laptrakul
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ayutthaya FC · On: Caíque Lemes · Off: Guntapon Keereeleang
45′SECOND HALF Ayutthaya FC 0–0 Lamphun Warrior
46′HALF-TIME Ayutthaya FC 0–0 Lamphun Warrior
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Ayutthaya FC · On: Lucas Dias do Nascimento Serafim · Off: Yuki Kusano
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Ayutthaya FC win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
53′We said Ayutthaya FC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–45–23
55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 31–47–22
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Kerim Palić · Ayutthaya FC
59′We said Ayutthaya FC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–50–21
62′We said Ayutthaya FC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–22–72
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Ayutthaya FC 0–1 Lamphun Warrior
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Ayutthaya FC win: 44% at kick-off, 6% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Lamphun Warrior win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 22%)
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Lamphun Warrior · On: Anderson · Off: Baworn Tapla
63′Lamphun Warrior ahead on 62′ through Anderson. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–22–73
66′We said Ayutthaya FC at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Ayutthaya FC win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
75′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–2 · 0–2–98
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Ayutthaya FC 0–2 Lamphun Warrior
76′An own goal by Ayutthaya FC's Passakorn Biaothungoi on 75′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Lamphun Warrior · On: Purachet Thodsanid · Off: Christian Ilić
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Ayutthaya FC · On: Chukid Wanpraphao · Off: Willen Mota
81′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ayutthaya FC · On: Pongrawit Jantawong · Off: Ewerton da Silva Pereira
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lamphun Warrior · On: Nuttee Noiwilai · Off: Luis Machado
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lamphun Warrior · On: Wittaya Moonwong · Off: Suriya Singmui
93′Full time, 0–2. We called Ayutthaya FC at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ayutthaya FC 0–2 Lamphun Warrior
FTAyutthaya FC 0–2 Lamphun Warrior · Ayutthaya FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ayutthaya FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ayutthaya FC 44%, draw 28%, Lamphun Warrior 28%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Ayutthaya FC v Lamphun WarriorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Ayutthaya FC win44%

Draw28%

Lamphun Warrior win28%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 5

VenueAyutthaya Province Stadium

Line-ups

Ayutthaya FC

4-3-3

Lamphun Warrior

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ayutthaya FC

Lamphun Warrior

6Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Thai League 1

Last match: 11 Oct · Thai League 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Ayutthaya FC	4	+1	7
15	Lamphun Warrior	4	−6	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ayutthaya FC

4-3-3

1 Warut Mekmusik

23 Passakorn Biaothungoi

4 K. Palić

2 Hwang Hyun-Soo

47 Bhumchanok Kamkla

6 Ewerton

10 C. Karin

25 Y. Kusano

17 C. Laptrakul

9 Willen Mota

97 Guntapon Keereeleang

Coach · J. Siriwattanasart

Substitutes

29 · Sanrawat Dechmitr

5 · Atsadawut Changthong

7 · Lucas Dias

13 · S. Ingkaew

27 · Pongrawit Jantawong

15 · D. Kerkez

18 · S. Namphueng

21 · Thananat Rungrampan

55 · S. Sompim

77 · Caíque Lemes

19 · Chukid Wanpraphao

8 · N. Worasut

Lamphun Warrior

5-4-1

20 N. Muangngam

7 D. Schad

16 Putthinan Wannasri

23 C. Clough

33 O. Okungbowa

30 S. Singmui

6 C. Ilić

32 B. Tapla

5 C. Tongkiri

14 Mohammed Osman

11 Luis Machado

Coach · D. Amato

Substitutes

75 · P. Wannabutr

18 · P. Thodsanit

10 · S. Suriyachai

26 · K. Suklom

82 · A. Suew

96 · Natapakhan Promthongmee

21 · N. Noiwilai

2 · W. Moonwong

29 · T. Khotrsupho

77 · Abdulrahman Kelani Essadi

8 · A. Berg

9 · Anderson Chaves

Our number · ayutthaya fc winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

44% The market36%

Us44%

~~Market~~36%

We make Ayutthaya FC a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ayutthaya FC v Lamphun Warrior~~1.44 – 1.09

~~Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D1 L1 · W0 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 1~~8 v 15

~~The market · Ayutthaya FC win~~36% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ayutthaya FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ayutthaya FC win	44%	36%	+8
Draw	28%	28%	0
Lamphun Warrior win	28%	36%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	58%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	77%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Ayutthaya FC or draw	72%	64%	+8
Ayutthaya FC clean sheet	34%	–	–
Lamphun Warrior clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 9.3 7.6 4.8 1 10.4 13.4 6.7 2.5 2 8.2 8.8 4.8 3 4.0 4.3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ayutthaya FC down, Lamphun Warrior across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,232 Thai League 1 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Thai League 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.4% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ayutthaya FC at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lamphun Warrior away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Ayutthaya FC, 1.09 for Lamphun Warrior. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 12:36. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LAM 2–0 AYU · AYU 1–1 LAM · LAM 2–1 AYU · AYU 1–1 LAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Thai League 1 this season · since 6 Sept

AYUTTHAYA FC

WWLD2–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

LAMPHUN WARRIOR

LLDL1–4 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Buriram United	4	+4	10
2	Uthai Thani	4	+5	9
3	Bangkok United	4	+4	9
4	Prachuap	4	+4	9
5	Port FC	4	+2	9
6	Ratchaburi	4	+6	7
7	Rayong FC	4	+1	7
8	Ayutthaya FC	4	+1	7
9	Sisaket United	4	−1	6
10	BG Pathum United	4	0	5
11	Chiangrai United	4	−1	4
12	Pattani	4	−3	4
13	Sukhothai FC	4	−8	3
14	Rasi Salai United	4	−4	1
15	Lamphun Warrior	4	−6	1
16	Chonburi FC	4	−4	0